Project: Aggregating Statistical Models and Human Judgment Config
| Summary: | Four models, 12 forecasts, 45 predictions |
|---|---|
| Owner: | allicodi |
| Model Owners: | allicodi, mcandrew |
| Visibility | Public |
| Description: | This project aims to provide public health officials forecasts of the COVID-19 outbreak using human judgment. A consensus forecast is an equally weighted combination of probabilistic predictions made by individuals. We included consensus forecasts from individual forecasters on Metaculus (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/) and from Good Judgment Open (https://www.gjopen.com/). A chimeric forecast is also included: an equally weighted combination of human judgment consensus forecasts and of computational models from the COVID-19 Forecasthub ensemble. Each month, individuals contribute forecasts for incident cases, deaths, hospitalizations, cumulative number of vaccines, and variant prevalence at the US national level. Individuals can produce forecasts at the beginning of each month until the middle of the month. All forecasting ends at 2PM EST. |
| Home: | https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL |
| Core data: | https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/aggregating_statistical_models_and_human_judgment |
| Truth Data: | (No truth data) |
| Visualization: | (Please configure options to view visualizations) (interactive visualization of all forecasts in the project [beta]) |
| Summary: | Summary (interactive visualization/tabular summary of all - or a subset of - forecasts in the project) |
| Explorer: | Explorer (summarizes the subset of the most recent forecasts from each team) |
| Download: | Download (interface to start a query for any forecast data in the project) |
Models (4)
| Abbreviation | Team | # Forecasts | Oldest | Newest | Upload time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HJ_Consensus | Computational Uncertainty Laboratory | 6 | 2021-01-16 | 2021-06-16 | 2022-04-30 23:58:40 UTC |
| Chimeric | Computational Uncertainty Laboratory | 6 | 2021-01-16 | 2021-06-16 | 2022-04-25 20:38:56 UTC |
| GJOCon | Computational Uncertainty Laboratory | 0 | |||
| MetaculusCon | Computational Uncertainty Laboratory | 0 |
Units (6)
| Abbreviation | Name |
|---|---|
| variant | variant prevalence |
| vaccine2 | cumulative full vaccinations |
| vaccine1 | cumulative first-dose vaccinations |
| hosp | incident hospitalizations |
| death | incident deaths |
| case | incident cases |
Targets (33)
| Target Group | # Targets | Type | Outcome Variable | Step ahead? | Example Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-24 case | 1 | continuous | number of cases | “2021-01-24 case” | |
| 2021-01-24 death | 1 | continuous | number of deaths | “2021-01-24 death” | |
| 2021-01-24 hosp | 1 | continuous | number of hosps | “2021-01-24 hosp” | |
| 2021-02-01 variant | 1 | continuous | variant prevalence | “2021-02-01 variant” | |
| 2021-02-21 case | 1 | continuous | number of cases | “2021-02-21 case” | |
| 2021-02-21 death | 1 | continuous | number of deaths | “2021-02-21 death” | |
| 2021-02-21 hosp | 1 | continuous | number of hosps | “2021-02-21 hosp” | |
| 2021-02-28 vaccine1 | 1 | continuous | number of 1st dose vaccinations | “2021-02-28 vaccine1” | |
| 2021-03-21 case | 1 | continuous | number of cases | “2021-03-21 case” | |
| 2021-03-21 death | 1 | continuous | number of deaths | “2021-03-21 death” | |
| 2021-03-21 hosp | 1 | continuous | number of hosps | “2021-03-21 hosp” | |
| 2021-03-21 variant | 1 | continuous | variant prevalence | “2021-03-21 variant” | |
| 2021-03-29 variant | 1 | continuous | variant prevalence | “2021-03-29 variant” | |
| 2021-03-31 vaccine1 | 1 | continuous | number of 1st dose vaccinations | “2021-03-31 vaccine1” | |
| 2021-03-31 vaccine2 | 1 | continuous | number of full vaccinations | “2021-03-31 vaccine2” | |
| 2021-04-24 variant | 1 | continuous | variant prevalence | “2021-04-24 variant” | |
| 2021-04-25 case | 1 | continuous | number of cases | “2021-04-25 case” | |
| 2021-04-25 death | 1 | continuous | number of deaths | “2021-04-25 death” | |
| 2021-04-25 hosp | 1 | continuous | number of hosps | “2021-04-25 hosp” | |
| 2021-04-30 vaccine1 | 1 | continuous | number of 1st dose vaccinations | “2021-04-30 vaccine1” | |
| 2021-04-30 vaccine2 | 1 | continuous | number of full vaccinations | “2021-04-30 vaccine2” | |
| 2021-05-23 variant | 1 | continuous | variant prevalence | “2021-05-23 variant” | |
| 2021-05-30 case | 1 | continuous | number of cases | “2021-05-30 case” | |
| 2021-05-30 death | 1 | continuous | number of deaths | “2021-05-30 death” | |
| 2021-05-30 hosp | 1 | continuous | number of hosps | “2021-05-30 hosp” | |
| 2021-05-31 vaccine1 | 1 | continuous | number of 1st dose vaccinations | “2021-05-31 vaccine1” | |
| 2021-05-31 vaccine2 | 1 | continuous | number of full vaccinations | “2021-05-31 vaccine2” | |
| 2021-06-27 case | 1 | continuous | number of cases | “2021-06-27 case” | |
| 2021-06-27 death | 1 | continuous | number of deaths | “2021-06-27 death” | |
| 2021-06-27 hosp | 1 | continuous | number of hosps | “2021-06-27 hosp” | |
| 2021-06-27 variant | 1 | continuous | variant prevalence | “2021-06-27 variant” | |
| 2021-06-30 vaccine1 | 1 | continuous | number of 1st dose vaccinations | “2021-06-30 vaccine1” | |
| 2021-06-30 vaccine2 | 1 | continuous | number of full vaccinations | “2021-06-30 vaccine2” |
Time zeros (6)
| Time Zero | Data Version Date | # Forecasts | Starts Season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-16 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2021-02-15 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2021-03-15 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2021-04-20 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2021-05-18 | (No data version date) | 2 | |
| 2021-06-16 | (No data version date) | 2 |