| Name: | Human Judgment Consensus |
|---|---|
| Abbreviation: | HJ_Consensus |
| Owner: | allicodi |
| Team name: | Computational Uncertainty Laboratory |
| Description: | The human judgment consensus model aggregates 2,021 responses from 404 individuals on 1 to 3 week ahead probabilistic predictions of (1) incident cases, (2) hospitalizations, and (3) deaths; (4) cumulative first dose and (5) fully vaccinated individuals; and (6) percentage of circulating variants at the US national level from Jan. 2021 to Jun. 2021 (6 months). |
| Contributors: | Allison Codi (Lehigh University), Damon Luk (Lehigh University), Juan Cambeiro (Metaculus), David Braun (Lehigh University), Tamay Besiroglu (Metaculus), Eva Chen (Good Judgement Open) <chen@goodjudgment.com>, Luis Enrique Urtubey (Good Judgement Open) <decesaris@goodjudgment.com>, Paolo Bocchini (Lehigh University) <paolo.bocchini@lehigh.edu>, Thomas McAndrew (Lehigh University) <mcandrew@lehigh.edu> |
| License: | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 |
| Notes: | |
| Citation: | |
| Methods: | Participants submitted forecasts from two human judgment forecasting platforms: Metaculus and Good Judgment Open (GJO). Individual forecasts submitted to Metaculus and GJO were combined into an equally weighted linear pool called a consensus forecast. |
| Home: | https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL |
| Auxiliary data: | (No URL) |
| Timezero | Data Source | Upload Time | Issued at | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-16 | hj_consensus_2021-06-16 | 2022-04-30 23:58:40 UTC | 2022-04-30 23:58:40 UTC | |
| 2021-05-18 | hj_consensus_2021-05-18 | 2022-04-30 23:51:46 UTC | 2022-04-30 23:51:46 UTC | |
| 2021-04-20 | hj_consensus_2021-04-20 | 2022-04-30 23:51:12 UTC | 2022-04-30 23:51:12 UTC | |
| 2021-03-15 | hj_consensus_2021-03-15 | 2022-04-26 19:57:23 UTC | 2022-04-26 19:57:23 UTC | |
| 2021-02-15 | hj_consensus_2021-02-15 | 2022-04-26 19:57:05 UTC | 2022-04-26 19:57:05 UTC | |
| 2021-01-16 | hj_consensus_2021-01-16 | 2022-04-25 20:28:45 UTC | 2022-04-25 20:28:45 UTC |