Model: Computational Uncertainty Laboratory - HJ_Consensus

    Name: Human Judgment Consensus
    Abbreviation: HJ_Consensus
    Owner: allicodi
    Team name: Computational Uncertainty Laboratory
    Description: The human judgment consensus model aggregates 2,021 responses from 404 individuals on 1 to 3 week ahead probabilistic predictions of (1)
    incident cases, (2) hospitalizations, and (3) deaths; (4) cumulative first dose and (5) fully vaccinated individuals;
    and (6) percentage of circulating variants at the US national level from Jan. 2021 to Jun. 2021 (6 months).
    Contributors: Allison Codi (Lehigh University), Damon Luk (Lehigh University), Juan Cambeiro (Metaculus), David Braun (Lehigh University), Tamay Besiroglu (Metaculus), Eva Chen (Good Judgement Open) <chen@goodjudgment.com>, Luis Enrique Urtubey (Good Judgement Open) <decesaris@goodjudgment.com>, Paolo Bocchini (Lehigh University) <paolo.bocchini@lehigh.edu>, Thomas McAndrew (Lehigh University) <mcandrew@lehigh.edu>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes:
    Citation:
    Methods: Participants submitted forecasts from two human judgment forecasting platforms: Metaculus and Good Judgment Open (GJO). Individual forecasts submitted to Metaculus and GJO were combined into an equally weighted linear pool called a consensus forecast.
    Home: https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (6)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2021-06-16 hj_consensus_2021-06-16 2022-04-30 23:58:40 UTC 2022-04-30 23:58:40 UTC
    2021-05-18 hj_consensus_2021-05-18 2022-04-30 23:51:46 UTC 2022-04-30 23:51:46 UTC
    2021-04-20 hj_consensus_2021-04-20 2022-04-30 23:51:12 UTC 2022-04-30 23:51:12 UTC
    2021-03-15 hj_consensus_2021-03-15 2022-04-26 19:57:23 UTC 2022-04-26 19:57:23 UTC
    2021-02-15 hj_consensus_2021-02-15 2022-04-26 19:57:05 UTC 2022-04-26 19:57:05 UTC
    2021-01-16 hj_consensus_2021-01-16 2022-04-25 20:28:45 UTC 2022-04-25 20:28:45 UTC