Model: Computational Uncertainty Laboratory - Chimeric

    Name: COVID-19 Chimeric Forecast
    Abbreviation: Chimeric
    Owner: allicodi
    Team name: Computational Uncertainty Laboratory
    Description: This chimeric forecast is a combination of Metaculus and GJO expert consensus forecasts and the COVIDhub-ensemble- an ensemble of computational models hosted by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( Experts are defined as people with several years of experience in the study or modeling of infectious disease and/or public health decision making.
    Contributors: Thomas McAndrew (Lehigh University) <>, Juan Cambeiro (Metaculus), David Braun (Lehigh University), Tamay Besiroglu (Metaculus), Eva Chen (Good Judgement Open) <>, Luis Enrique Urtubey (Good Judgement Open) <>, Damon Luk (Lehigh University), Allison Codi (Lehigh University)
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Methods: A chimeric forecast is built by combining an ensemble of computational models and a consensus of predictions from humans- in our case, predictions from trained forecasters and experts. The COVID-19 forecast hub ensemble cumulative predictive density is divided into 23 quantiles for incident deaths and 7 quantiles for incident cases. We can extract the same number of quantiles from our consensus forecast and compute quantiles for our chimeric forecast as: Qchimericforecast = 0.5(QCOVID-19 ensemble) + 0.5(QConsensus forecast) where Qx is a quantile from distribution x.
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (6)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2021-06-16 20210602_20210616 2022-04-25 20:38:56 UTC 2022-04-25 20:38:56 UTC
    2021-05-18 20210505_20210518 2022-04-25 20:38:18 UTC 2022-04-25 20:38:18 UTC
    2021-04-20 20210407_20210420 2022-04-25 20:37:21 UTC 2022-04-25 20:37:21 UTC
    2021-03-15 20210303_20210315 2022-04-25 20:36:48 UTC 2022-04-25 20:36:48 UTC
    2021-02-15 20210203_20210215 2022-04-25 20:36:22 UTC 2022-04-25 20:36:22 UTC
    2021-01-16 20210106_20210116 2022-04-25 20:34:45 UTC 2022-04-25 20:34:45 UTC