Model: Fjordhest - fjordhest-ensemble

    Name: ensemble
    Abbreviation: fjordhest-ensemble
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: Fjordhest
    Description: An inverse-WIS weighted ensemble of 3 component models - a compartmental model, a quantile AR model, and a baseline model of random walk with drift.
    Contributors: Sasi Kandula (Norwegian Institute of Public Health) <sasikiran.kandula@fhi.no>, Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares (Norwegian Institute of Public Health; University of Oslo), Birgitte De Blasio (Norwegian Institute of Public Health; University of Oslo) <Bigitte.Freiesleben.DeBlasio@fhi.no">
    License: Creative Commons Attribution Share Alike 4.0
    Notes: Designated model // Data inputs: US Department of Health and Human Services, COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries
    Citation: Geir Storvik, Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares, Solveig Engebretsen, et al. (2023) A sequential Monte Carlo approach to estimate a time varying reproduction number in infectious disease models: the COVID-19 case., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 2023; https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad043; Tibshirani R, Brooks L (2020). quantgen: Tools for generalized quantile modeling; https://github.com/cmu-delphi/flu-hosp-forecast/; O'Hara-Wild M, Hyndman R, Wang E (2022). fable: Forecasting Models for Tidy Time Series. R package version 0.3.2.
    Methods: The mechanistic model is a stochastic SEIR model, with a sequential Monte Carlo based inference. Quantile autoregression model uses quantgen R package, and is similar to CMU-Timeseries model from 2022/23 season. Random walk model uses fable R package. To build an ensemble, the quantile distributions of the component models are weighted (location- and target-specific) by the mean of inverse-WIS scores over the last 3 weeks that could be evaluated. The estimates are solely the responsibility of the contributors and do not represent, nor are endorsed by, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
    Home: https://www.fhi.no/en/
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (30)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-27 forecast-7381466ae4b2.json 2024-04-25 11:22:41 UTC 2024-04-25 11:22:41 UTC
    2024-04-20 forecast-734ece21515.json 2024-04-18 11:22:31 UTC 2024-04-18 11:22:31 UTC
    2024-04-13 forecast-73f045250aef.json 2024-04-13 11:18:26 UTC 2024-04-13 11:18:26 UTC
    2024-04-06 forecast-73a77f9d9b4f.json 2024-04-04 11:22:30 UTC 2024-04-04 11:22:30 UTC
    2024-03-30 forecast-75823c64a517.json 2024-03-28 11:26:19 UTC 2024-03-28 11:26:19 UTC
    2024-03-23 forecast-7555762888eb.json 2024-03-21 11:26:19 UTC 2024-03-21 11:26:19 UTC
    2024-03-16 forecast-75a47e0be6be.json 2024-03-14 11:25:11 UTC 2024-03-14 11:25:11 UTC
    2024-03-09 forecast-75e27c79b3d5.json 2024-03-07 11:25:30 UTC 2024-03-07 11:25:30 UTC
    2024-03-02 forecast-7520d3daf3d.json 2024-03-01 15:33:20 UTC 2024-03-01 15:33:20 UTC
    2024-06-01 (No data)
    2024-05-25 (No data)
    2024-05-18 (No data)
    2024-05-11 (No data)
    2024-05-04 forecast-73ae145e23ed.json 2024-05-02 11:22:56 UTC 2024-05-02 11:22:56 UTC
    2024-02-24 forecast-74e75da264a5.json 2024-02-22 11:25:05 UTC 2024-02-22 11:25:05 UTC
    2024-02-17 forecast-7547780c9088.json 2024-02-15 11:24:50 UTC 2024-02-15 11:24:50 UTC
    2024-02-10 forecast-74e856c3bac.json 2024-02-08 11:25:19 UTC 2024-02-08 11:25:19 UTC
    2024-02-03 forecast-75002d32af21.json 2024-02-01 11:24:29 UTC 2024-02-01 11:24:29 UTC
    2024-01-27 forecast-756e7c4ed90e.json 2024-01-25 11:26:15 UTC 2024-01-25 11:26:15 UTC
    2024-01-20 forecast-74f8175408c3.json 2024-01-18 11:25:03 UTC 2024-01-18 11:25:03 UTC
    2024-01-13 forecast-752040903415.json 2024-01-11 11:25:10 UTC 2024-01-11 11:25:10 UTC
    2024-01-06 forecast-74f92d9ec958.json 2024-01-04 11:25:06 UTC 2024-01-04 11:25:06 UTC
    2023-12-30 forecast-74df60d81fc0.json 2023-12-28 11:24:58 UTC 2023-12-28 11:24:58 UTC
    2023-12-23 forecast-74d12f20a3a6.json 2023-12-21 11:25:14 UTC 2023-12-21 11:25:14 UTC
    2023-12-16 forecast-75bc13cdec88.json 2023-12-14 11:25:11 UTC 2023-12-14 11:25:11 UTC
    2023-12-09 forecast-75329f45b0d.json 2023-12-08 14:56:41 UTC 2023-12-08 14:56:41 UTC
    2023-12-02 forecast-7698a071ff.json 2023-12-07 15:03:29 UTC 2023-12-07 15:03:29 UTC
    2023-11-25 forecast-448428143bd3.json 2023-11-28 16:25:10 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:10 UTC
    2023-11-18 forecast-4484a362fc.json 2023-11-28 16:25:08 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:08 UTC
    2023-11-11 forecast-44843e0d3abf.json 2023-11-28 16:25:06 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:06 UTC
    2023-11-04 forecast-4484173e618a.json 2023-11-28 16:25:04 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:04 UTC
    2023-10-28 forecast-44847cea4e7a.json 2023-11-28 16:25:02 UTC 2023-11-28 16:25:02 UTC
    2023-10-21 forecast-448421e96bdb.json 2023-11-28 16:24:59 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:59 UTC
    2023-10-14 forecast-44844bc81cdc.json 2023-11-28 16:24:57 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:57 UTC
    2023-10-07 (No data)