Model: Predictive Science Inc. - PSI-PROF

    Name: Package for Respiratory Disease Open-source Forecasting
    Abbreviation: PSI-PROF
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: Predictive Science Inc.
    Description: A stochastic/deterministic, SIR[H]2 model with a time-dependent transmission rate, that includes compartments for hospitalizations. Parameter posteriors are inferred using an MCMC procedure.
    Contributors: Michal Ben-Nun (Predictive Science Inc) <mbennun@predsci.com>, James Turtle (Predictive Science Inc) <jturtle@predsci.com>, Pete Riley (Predictive Science Inc) <pete@predsci.com>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: Designated model // Data inputs: "Daily and weekly incident flu hospitalizations from the HHS COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries. US Census population estimates." // Team funding: "CSTE/CDC: Development of Forecasts and/or Scenario Projections for Influenza to Inform Public Health Decision Making (Cooperative Agreement number NU38OT000297)."
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010375
    Methods: The PROF routines perform a deterministic fit of our compartmental SIR[H]2 model to daily hospitalization incidence profiles. The model includes a hospitalization compartment which is split into two sub-compartments. This split ensures that the model preserves the correct generation time (Tg) and that the ratio between cumulative recovered and hospitalized individuals is determined by the infection-hospitalization-ratio. The transmission-rate coefficient (beta) is a time-dependent function of 2 or more arc-tangents. The model fit is inferred by an MCMC procedure. It is followed by stochastic simulations through the forecast time-window using the inferred parameter distributions and a daily cadence which is then aggregated to weekly incidence to produce the forecasts. Where there is little-to-no epi signal in the data, a baseline statistical model is substituted for the mechanistic model. This model is similar to the previous model 'PSI-DICE', but in an updated computational framework (https://github.com/predsci/PROF).
    Home: https://www.predsci.com/usa-flu-hosp/
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (30)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-27 forecast-73813fa2ef16.json 2024-04-25 11:23:02 UTC 2024-04-25 11:23:02 UTC
    2024-04-20 forecast-734e226a5571.json 2024-04-18 11:22:50 UTC 2024-04-18 11:22:50 UTC
    2024-04-13 forecast-73e327518441.json 2024-04-12 11:23:02 UTC 2024-04-12 11:23:02 UTC
    2024-04-06 forecast-73a74476aa56.json 2024-04-04 11:22:48 UTC 2024-04-04 11:22:48 UTC
    2024-03-30 forecast-75821a9e65c9.json 2024-03-28 11:26:38 UTC 2024-03-28 11:26:38 UTC
    2024-03-23 forecast-75557cbdd858.json 2024-03-21 11:26:42 UTC 2024-03-21 11:26:42 UTC
    2024-03-16 forecast-75a44804ad07.json 2024-03-14 11:25:34 UTC 2024-03-14 11:25:34 UTC
    2024-03-09 forecast-75e27db2e573.json 2024-03-07 11:25:51 UTC 2024-03-07 11:25:51 UTC
    2024-03-02 forecast-75207c6b1cb3.json 2024-03-01 15:33:44 UTC 2024-03-01 15:33:44 UTC
    2024-06-01 (No data)
    2024-05-25 (No data)
    2024-05-18 (No data)
    2024-05-11 (No data)
    2024-05-04 forecast-73ae6fc0b522.json 2024-05-02 11:23:16 UTC 2024-05-02 11:23:16 UTC
    2024-02-24 forecast-74e71245457e.json 2024-02-22 11:25:23 UTC 2024-02-22 11:25:23 UTC
    2024-02-17 forecast-754760cfd50e.json 2024-02-15 11:25:10 UTC 2024-02-15 11:25:10 UTC
    2024-02-10 forecast-74e86876a8de.json 2024-02-08 11:25:38 UTC 2024-02-08 11:25:38 UTC
    2024-02-03 forecast-750e1fb9a66a.json 2024-02-02 11:24:45 UTC 2024-02-02 11:24:45 UTC
    2024-01-27 forecast-756e3ebd04b3.json 2024-01-25 11:26:41 UTC 2024-01-25 11:26:41 UTC
    2024-01-20 forecast-74f8aba7681.json 2024-01-18 11:25:23 UTC 2024-01-18 11:25:23 UTC
    2024-01-13 forecast-75207b1b2cac.json 2024-01-11 11:25:32 UTC 2024-01-11 11:25:32 UTC
    2024-01-06 forecast-74f9509845ab.json 2024-01-04 11:25:24 UTC 2024-01-04 11:25:24 UTC
    2023-12-30 forecast-74df1498272e.json 2023-12-28 11:25:14 UTC 2023-12-28 11:25:14 UTC
    2023-12-23 forecast-74d13917f932.json 2023-12-21 11:25:34 UTC 2023-12-21 11:25:34 UTC
    2023-12-16 forecast-75bc56608f48.json 2023-12-14 11:25:31 UTC 2023-12-14 11:25:31 UTC
    2023-12-09 forecast-75c64e9d7cd7.json 2023-12-08 18:53:31 UTC 2023-12-08 18:53:31 UTC
    2023-12-02 forecast-ca8c777369bb.json 2023-12-07 15:03:30 UTC 2023-12-07 15:03:30 UTC
    2023-11-25 forecast-4a5c27572f3d.json 2023-11-28 16:24:43 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:43 UTC
    2023-11-18 forecast-4a5c34711113.json 2023-11-28 16:24:41 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:41 UTC
    2023-11-11 forecast-4a5c5ec753c.json 2023-11-28 16:24:38 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:38 UTC
    2023-11-04 forecast-4a5c218473a9.json 2023-11-28 16:24:37 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:37 UTC
    2023-10-28 forecast-4a5c3ff22fa6.json 2023-11-28 16:24:34 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:34 UTC
    2023-10-21 forecast-4a5c11b15b04.json 2023-11-28 16:24:31 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:31 UTC
    2023-10-14 forecast-4a5c516d245a.json 2023-11-28 16:24:28 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:28 UTC
    2023-10-07 (No data)