Model: Carnegie Mellon Delphi Group - CMU-TimeSeries

    Name: AR ensemble with auxiliary data
    Abbreviation: CMU-TimeSeries
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: Carnegie Mellon Delphi Group
    Description: An ensemble of AR-based time-series models
    Contributors: Logan Brooks (UC Berkeley) <lcbrooks@berkeley.edu>, Dmitry Shemetov (Carnegie Mellon University) <dshemetov@andrew.cmu.edu>, Nat DeFries (Carnegie Mellon University) <ndfries@andrew.cmu.edu>, Addison Hu (Carnegie Mellon University) <addison@stat.cmu.edu>, David Weber (Carnegie Mellon University) <davidweb@andrew.cmu.edu>, Daniel McDonald (University of British Columbia) <daniel@stat.ubc.ca>, Ryan Tibshirani (UC Berkeley) <ryantibs@berkeley.edu>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: Designated model // Data inputs: Daily and weekly incident flu hospitalizations, queried through Delphi Epidata API. // Team funding: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Awards: U011P001121, 75D30123C15907, NU38FT000005
    Citation:
    Methods: A basic quantile autoregression fit using lagged values of influenza-related hospitalization counts (normalized by population). The data are smoothed in time and the latter data source is adjusted to remove systematic day-of-week effects. The model is fit jointly across all 50 US states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, using the most recently available 21 days of training data. Each of the 23 quantiles is learned using a separate quantile regression with nonnegativity and quantile sorting constraints applied post hoc. All data signals are available as indicators through the Delphi Epidata API (https://cmu-delphi.github.io/delphi-epidata).
    Home: https://github.com/cmu-delphi/flu-hosp-forecast/
    Auxiliary data: https://cmu-delphi.github.io/delphi-epidata

    Forecasts (28)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-27 forecast-73817a0bcc38.json 2024-04-25 11:23:15 UTC 2024-04-25 11:23:15 UTC
    2024-04-20 forecast-734e1d000b1d.json 2024-04-18 11:23:08 UTC 2024-04-18 11:23:08 UTC
    2024-04-13 forecast-73e37f4e5328.json 2024-04-12 11:23:05 UTC 2024-04-12 11:23:05 UTC
    2024-04-06 forecast-73a711119cb6.json 2024-04-04 11:23:04 UTC 2024-04-04 11:23:04 UTC
    2024-03-30 forecast-7582263640dc.json 2024-03-28 11:26:56 UTC 2024-03-28 11:26:56 UTC
    2024-03-23 (No data)
    2024-03-16 forecast-75a4582b6320.json 2024-03-14 11:25:57 UTC 2024-03-14 11:25:57 UTC
    2024-03-09 forecast-75e2567b9da4.json 2024-03-07 11:26:13 UTC 2024-03-07 11:26:13 UTC
    2024-03-02 forecast-752072f611e8.json 2024-03-01 15:34:06 UTC 2024-03-01 15:34:06 UTC
    2024-06-01 (No data)
    2024-05-25 (No data)
    2024-05-18 (No data)
    2024-05-11 (No data)
    2024-05-04 forecast-73ae578d1321.json 2024-05-02 11:23:30 UTC 2024-05-02 11:23:30 UTC
    2024-02-24 forecast-74e7e8ef587.json 2024-02-22 11:25:41 UTC 2024-02-22 11:25:41 UTC
    2024-02-17 (No data)
    2024-02-10 forecast-74e87a2d0827.json 2024-02-08 11:25:58 UTC 2024-02-08 11:25:58 UTC
    2024-02-03 forecast-750e25134d64.json 2024-02-02 11:25:00 UTC 2024-02-02 11:25:00 UTC
    2024-01-27 forecast-756e3b9cb878.json 2024-01-25 11:27:02 UTC 2024-01-25 11:27:02 UTC
    2024-01-20 forecast-74f85843f3b3.json 2024-01-18 11:25:41 UTC 2024-01-18 11:25:41 UTC
    2024-01-13 forecast-752012a43c24.json 2024-01-11 11:25:54 UTC 2024-01-11 11:25:54 UTC
    2024-01-06 forecast-74f92171e31f.json 2024-01-04 11:25:45 UTC 2024-01-04 11:25:45 UTC
    2023-12-30 forecast-74df609f1be9.json 2023-12-28 11:25:23 UTC 2023-12-28 11:25:23 UTC
    2023-12-23 forecast-74d11324e81b.json 2023-12-21 11:25:49 UTC 2023-12-21 11:25:49 UTC
    2023-12-16 forecast-75bc3a39a2b6.json 2023-12-14 11:25:54 UTC 2023-12-14 11:25:54 UTC
    2023-12-09 forecast-75c6225e4a1b.json 2023-12-08 18:53:51 UTC 2023-12-08 18:53:51 UTC
    2023-12-02 forecast-85487c781f55.json 2023-12-07 15:03:29 UTC 2023-12-07 15:03:29 UTC
    2023-11-25 forecast-46005d123a0c.json 2023-11-28 16:24:42 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:42 UTC
    2023-11-18 forecast-46006d14332a.json 2023-11-28 16:24:40 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:40 UTC
    2023-11-11 forecast-46005437765b.json 2023-11-28 16:24:37 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:37 UTC
    2023-11-04 forecast-460032374d90.json 2023-11-28 16:24:35 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:35 UTC
    2023-10-28 forecast-46009cd7e15.json 2023-11-28 16:24:33 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:33 UTC
    2023-10-21 forecast-46005744bbb.json 2023-11-28 16:24:31 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:31 UTC
    2023-10-14 forecast-46009d86719.json 2023-11-28 16:24:28 UTC 2023-11-28 16:24:28 UTC
    2023-10-07 (No data)