Model: Predictive Science - PSI-DICE

    Name: Dynamics of Interacting Community Epidemics
    Abbreviation: PSI-DICE
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Predictive Science
    Description: A stochastic/deterministic, SEIR model that stratifies by disease severity and includes compartments for hospitalizations. Parameter posteriors are inferred using an MCMC procedure.
    Contributors: James Turtle <jturtle@predsci.com>, Michal Ben-Nun <mbennun@predsci.com>, Pete Riley <pete@predsci.com>
    License: MIT
    Notes: secondary
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007013, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009230
    Methods: Deterministic fit of a compartmental SEIR model to daily hospitalization incidence profiles, followed by stochastic simulations using the inferred parameter distributions. The 'I' compartments are divided by disease severity into Mild (non-clinical) and Clinical. A portion of clinical cases will proceed to the hospitalization compartment. And then again there is a probability of moving from hospitalization to death. The model fit is inferred by MCMC procedure, run forward at a daily cadence, and then aggregated to weekly incidence to produce the forecast. The initial model does not include climate data, school schedules, or coupling between states, but we will provide updates as those factors are incorporated into the model.
    Home: https://github.com/predsci/DICE4
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (14)

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    2022-02-28 2022-02-28-PSI-DICE.csv 2022-03-01 00:48:24 UTC 2022-03-01 00:48:24 UTC
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    2022-03-07 2022-03-07-PSI-DICE.csv 2022-03-08 00:52:01 UTC 2022-03-08 00:52:01 UTC
    2022-03-11 (No data)
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    2022-04-04 2022-04-04-PSI-DICE.csv 2022-04-05 00:36:40 UTC 2022-04-05 00:36:40 UTC
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    2022-04-11 2022-04-11-PSI-DICE.csv 2022-04-11 18:35:53 UTC 2022-04-11 18:35:53 UTC
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    2022-05-02 2022-05-02-PSI-DICE.csv 2022-05-03 00:43:59 UTC 2022-05-03 00:43:59 UTC
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    2022-05-09 2022-05-09-PSI-DICE.csv 2022-05-10 00:38:21 UTC 2022-05-10 00:38:21 UTC
    2022-05-15 (No data)