Model: IEM MED - IEM_MED-CovidProject

    Name: CovidProjections
    Abbreviation: IEM_MED-CovidProject
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: IEM MED
    Description: County-level, state-level, and national-level SEIR model projections for daily incident confirmed COVID cases by using AI to fit actual cases observed.
    Contributors: Brad Suchoski (IEM) <bradley.suchoski@iem.com>, Steve Stage (IEM) <steve.stage@iem.com>, Heidi Gurung (IEM) <heidi.gurung@iem.com>, Sid Baccam (IEM) <sid.baccam@iem.com>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: IEM is currently using an AI model to fit data from various sources and project new cases of COVID-19. We do not assume the average number of secondary infections (R-value) stays the same over time. Our model makes projections for over 375 individual counties in the U.S., all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and 3 U.S. territories. For each jurisdiction, our model runs 4 million simulations to find the best R value that would allow the SEIR model to fit the data for confirmed cases. Our model assumes that the R value changes quite rapidly over time due to changes in human behavior. Our model uses a sliding window to fit the data and find the best R values for each of the windows. Projections of future cases assume that human behavior and social distancing measures are unchanged.
    Home: https://iem-modeling.com/
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (31)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
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    2020-12-07 2020-12-07-IEM_MED-CovidProject.csv 2020-12-08 06:49:27 UTC 2020-12-08 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-04 2021-01-04-IEM_MED-CovidProject.csv 2021-01-04 18:58:17 UTC 2021-01-04 12:00:00 UTC
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