Model: BPagano - BPagano-RtDriven

    Name: RtDriven
    Abbreviation: BPagano-RtDriven
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: BPagano
    Description: Projects infections and deaths using an SIR model.
    Contributors: Bob Pagano (rjpagano@comcast.net)
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://bobpagano.com/covid-19-modeling/
    Methods: On our website we present daily projections for infections and deaths for 108 countries, 52 US states/territories, and 63 US counties. For the US we calculate mortality rates by US region and time based on the ages of people infected in a given region. We provide the following data as a function of time and place: cumulative and daily confirmed cases, cumulative and daily deaths, confirmed case-based and death-based effective transmission ratios, fraction of populations infected and constant infections transmission ratio, probability of Covid-19 contact, mortality and undercount, and fraction of positive tests. Our projections are driven by the effective transmission ratio, Rt. More specifically we run an SIR model using deaths and another using cases resulting in Rt for deaths and Rt for cases. To forecast how Rt will change with time, we analyze Rt change data through the course of the pandemic and apply a model of that characteristic behavior to forecast infections and deaths. UPDATE 20-10-18: Changed Rt forecast from Rt for deaths to the average of Rt for deaths and Rt for cases. UPDATE 20-10-25: Changed from Sunday forecast to the average of Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday forecasts. UPDATE 20-11-08: Corrected undercount calculation approach resulting in an increase in forecasted cases. UPDATE 20-11-29: Adjusted the 20-11-29 forecast by hand in light of under-reporting over the Thanksgiving holiday week. UPDATE 20-12-06: Cleaned up and enhanced a number of things in the RtDriven code. UPDATE 21-01-25: Modified data smoothing. Incorporated temporary immunity. Incorporated vaccinations. UPDATE 21-02-06: Began fine tuning forecast parameters based on national hospitalizations. UPDATE 21-03-21: Began adjusting Rt forecast start values by state. UPDATE 21-05-02: Returned to common algorithmic Rt forecast by states.
    Home: https://bobpagano.com
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (41)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-05 (No data)
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2020-03-15 (No data)
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    2020-10-04 2020-10-04-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-10-07 06:26:36 UTC 2020-10-07 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-10-11 2020-10-11-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-01-12 17:15:36 UTC 2020-10-12 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-10-11 2020-10-11-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-10-15 06:28:12 UTC 2020-10-15 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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    2020-10-18 2020-10-18-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-10-20 18:50:34 UTC 2020-10-20 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-10-25 2020-10-25-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-10-27 01:24:11 UTC 2020-10-27 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-11-01 2020-11-01-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-11-03 00:49:31 UTC 2020-11-03 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-11-08 2020-11-08-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-11-09 18:23:54 UTC 2020-11-09 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-11-15 2020-11-15-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-11-17 00:23:40 UTC 2020-11-17 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-11-22 2020-11-22-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-11-23 18:16:16 UTC 2020-11-23 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-11-29 2020-11-29-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-12-01 00:26:19 UTC 2020-11-30 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-12-06 2020-12-06-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-12-07 18:21:02 UTC 2020-12-07 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-12-13 2020-12-13-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-12-14 18:35:09 UTC 2020-12-14 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-12-20 2020-12-20-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-12-22 00:44:26 UTC 2020-12-21 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-12-22 (No data)
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    2020-12-27 2020-12-27-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2020-12-28 18:38:46 UTC 2020-12-28 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-12-30 (No data)
    2021-01-03 2021-01-03-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-01-05 00:55:41 UTC 2021-01-04 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-10 2021-01-10-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-01-12 01:03:20 UTC 2021-01-11 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-01-09 (No data)
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    2021-01-17 2021-01-17-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-01-18 19:12:48 UTC 2021-01-18 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-24 2021-01-24-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-01-25 19:04:56 UTC 2021-01-25 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2021-01-24 2021-01-24-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-01-27 00:34:42 UTC 2021-01-26 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2021-01-25 (No data)
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    2021-01-31 2021-01-31-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-02-01 18:49:53 UTC 2021-02-01 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-07 2021-02-07-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-02-08 18:39:00 UTC 2021-02-08 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-14 2021-02-14-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-02-15 18:37:27 UTC 2021-02-15 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-21 2021-02-21-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-02-23 01:14:00 UTC 2021-02-22 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-28 2021-02-28-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-03-01 06:26:30 UTC 2021-03-01 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-07 2021-03-07-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-03-08 18:32:07 UTC 2021-03-08 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-14 2021-03-14-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-03-15 18:29:08 UTC 2021-03-15 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-21 2021-03-21-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-03-22 12:28:06 UTC 2021-03-22 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-28 2021-03-28-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-03-29 18:32:14 UTC 2021-03-29 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-04 2021-04-04-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-04-05 18:31:23 UTC 2021-04-05 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-11 2021-04-11-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-04-12 18:30:38 UTC 2021-04-12 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2021-04-11 2021-04-11-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-04-13 05:02:29 UTC 2021-04-13 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2021-04-12 (No data)
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    2021-04-18 2021-04-18-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-04-19 18:32:20 UTC 2021-04-19 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-25 2021-04-25-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-04-26 18:58:22 UTC 2021-04-26 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-02 2021-05-02-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-05-03 18:48:47 UTC 2021-05-03 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-09 2021-05-09-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-05-10 00:44:44 UTC 2021-05-09 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-16 2021-05-16-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-05-17 18:44:49 UTC 2021-05-17 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-23 2021-05-23-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-05-24 18:58:04 UTC 2021-05-24 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-30 2021-05-30-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-05-31 19:52:04 UTC 2021-05-31 19:52:04 UTC
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    2021-06-06 2021-06-06-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-06-07 12:58:17 UTC 2021-06-07 12:58:17 UTC
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    2021-06-13 2021-06-13-BPagano-RtDriven.csv 2021-06-14 18:44:50 UTC 2021-06-14 18:44:50 UTC
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