Model: Steve McConnell - SteveMcConnell-CovidComplete

    Name: Covid Complete
    Abbreviation: SteveMcConnell-CovidComplete
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Steve McConnell
    Description: National level and state level, near-term (1-4 week) fatality forecasts.
    Contributors: Steve McConnell (Construx) <stevemcc@construx.com>, Brian Donaldson (XYZZY) <maynebri@gmail.com>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://stevemcconnell.com/covid
    Methods: This is a near-term fatality prediction model that calculates and uses fatality trends at the national and state level, trends in positive virus tests and total virus tests, and age-related demographics for state forecasts. Model forecasts are based on predicting near-term deaths from recent positive virus tests. The model assumes average delays of 4 days from infection to test, 14-17.5 days from positive test to death, and 18 days from infection to death. No assumptions are made about the effectiveness of interventions or treatments; the model assumes that any such change in effectiveness will be included implicitly in the historical fatality data and the fatality rates calculated from that data. This model uses a Rational Actor assumption for weeks 3-4, in which states that have death rates below their historical averages remain flat and states that have death rates above their historical averages revert toward their averages. No assumptions are made regarding specifics of reopenings or specific governmental interventions.
    Home: https://stevemcconnell.com/covid
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (14)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
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    2020-08-22 2020-08-22-SteveMcConnell-CovidComplete.csv 2020-08-23 14:21:35 EDT
    2020-08-23 2020-08-23-SteveMcConnell-CovidComplete.csv 2020-08-24 08:22:53 EDT
    2020-08-24 2020-08-24-SteveMcConnell-CovidComplete.csv 2020-08-24 21:12:38 EDT
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    2020-08-30 2020-08-30-SteveMcConnell-CovidComplete.csv 2020-08-31 08:19:12 EDT
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