Model: John Burant (JCB) - JCB-PRM

    Name: PRM
    Abbreviation: JCB-PRM
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: John Burant (JCB)
    Description: The Political Realities Model (PRM) is built on observations of macro-level societal and political responses to COVID measured only in terms of infections and deaths.
    Contributors: John Burant <john@the99percent.nl>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: The Political Realities Model (PRM) is built on observations of macro-level societal and political responses to COVID19 characterized only in terms of infections and deaths. The starting point of the model is the hypothesis that although individuals and policy makers have responded to the epidemic with a wide variety of behavioral modifications and policy actions, the actual net impact of the measures taken, though not identical across time or geography, is predictable. Moreover, these predictions can be based upon what a society and its elected officials have demonstrated it (they) will accept as a reasonable aggregate impact from COVID19. This model seeks to identify one or more "acceptability" range(s) from observation of the epidemic up to the current time and to understand how much impact on infection rates is achieved by responses in this (these) range(s). Deaths, in turn, are related to infections via a simple (time- and geographically-varying) phenomenological model derived through fitting. This allows the model to build in spatiotemporal variation in the demographics of the population, its access to health care & COVID testing, and the actual infection fatality rate without explicitly considering these factors. At present the model is deterministic rather than probabilistic, and so only provides point forecasts. The model considers the United States at the state level.
    Home: https://github.com/JohnBurant/COVID19-PRM
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (14)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2020-01-06 (No data)
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    2020-07-27 2020-07-27-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-07-27 21:23:32 EDT
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    2020-08-03 2020-08-03-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-08-03 21:18:30 EDT
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    2020-08-10 2020-08-10-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-08-10 08:20:53 EDT
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    2020-08-17 2020-08-17-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-08-17 14:19:37 EDT
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    2020-09-07 2020-09-07-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-09-07 08:27:24 EDT
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    2020-09-14 2020-09-14-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-09-14 14:27:26 EDT
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    2020-09-21 2020-09-21-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-09-21 21:31:13 EDT
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    2020-09-28 2020-09-28-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-09-28 21:51:20 EDT
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    2020-10-05 2020-10-05-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-10-05 08:43:47 EDT
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    2020-10-12 2020-10-12-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-10-12 08:31:50 EDT
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    2020-10-19 2020-10-19-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-10-19 14:52:12 EDT
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    2020-10-26 2020-10-26-JCB-PRM.csv 2020-10-26 14:45:08 EDT
    2020-11-02 (No data)
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