Model: Robert Walraven - RobertWalraven-ESG

    Name: EmpericalSkewedGaussian
    Abbreviation: RobertWalraven-ESG
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Robert Walraven
    Description: Multiple skewed gaussian distribution peaks fit to raw data
    Contributors: Robert Walraven <walraven@multiwareinc.com>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: The incremental cases and deaths of a single outbreak predicted by a simple SEIR model can be approximated closely with a particular skewed gaussian distribution that we developed that has four empirical parameters: height, position, left growth rate, and right decay rate. The ESG model assumes the JHU data consists of independent outbreaks at different times, and fits multiple peaks to the data, keeping the number of peaks to a minimum in order to fit with high accuracy the data after Loess smoothing. The most recent peaks are then used to generate a daily forecast forward three months. Hospitalization data and the pattern of older peaks is used to visually confirm the forecasts look correct and if not, manual adjustments are made to the forecast. The ESG model is a emperical mathematical model that makes no epidemiological assumptions and has no epidemiological parameters, so can serve as a baseline forecast against which to compare SEIR-based models.
    Home: http://rwalraven.com/COVID19
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (76)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
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    2020-08-16 2020-08-16-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-17 06:20:45 UTC 2020-08-17 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-08-23 2020-08-23-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-24 06:22:19 UTC 2020-08-24 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-08-30 2020-08-30-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-31 06:15:55 UTC 2020-08-31 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-09-06 2020-09-06-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-09-06 18:23:10 UTC 2020-09-06 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-07-27 2020-07-27-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-05 11:29:24 UTC 2020-08-05 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-08-03 2020-08-03-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-05 11:26:33 UTC 2020-08-05 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-08-10 2020-08-10-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2021-01-12 21:53:19 UTC 2020-08-10 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
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    2020-08-24 2020-08-24-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-24 18:21:13 UTC 2020-08-24 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-09-07 2020-09-07-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-09-08 06:24:45 UTC 2020-09-08 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-14 2020-09-14-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2021-01-12 21:56:43 UTC 2020-09-14 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
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    2020-09-28 2020-09-28-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-09-29 01:13:21 UTC 2020-09-29 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-10-05 2020-10-05-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-10-06 12:50:45 UTC 2020-10-06 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-10-19 2020-10-19-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-10-20 18:50:04 UTC 2020-10-20 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-10-26 2020-10-26-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-10-27 01:23:56 UTC 2020-10-27 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-11-02 2020-11-02-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-11-03 00:49:19 UTC 2020-11-03 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-11-23 2020-11-23-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-11-24 00:25:55 UTC 2020-11-23 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-11-30 2020-11-30-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-12-01 00:26:41 UTC 2020-11-30 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-12-07 2020-12-07-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-12-08 00:35:19 UTC 2020-12-07 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-12-28 2020-12-28-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-12-29 06:35:26 UTC 2020-12-29 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-06-28 2020-06-28-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-07-01 09:20:27 UTC 2020-07-01 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
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    2020-06-30 2020-06-30-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-07-03 03:56:24 UTC 2020-07-03 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
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    2020-07-07 2020-07-07-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-05 11:26:06 UTC 2020-08-05 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-07-12 2020-07-12-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-05 11:29:35 UTC 2020-08-05 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-07-26 2020-07-26-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2020-08-05 11:29:12 UTC 2020-08-05 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-07-05 2021-07-05-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2021-07-06 01:06:28 UTC 2021-07-06 01:06:28 UTC
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    2021-08-02 2021-08-02-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2021-08-02 18:32:49 UTC 2021-08-02 18:32:49 UTC
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    2021-02-01 2021-02-01-RobertWalraven-ESG.csv 2021-02-02 00:35:50 UTC 2021-02-01 12:00:00 UTC
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