Model: University of Southern California - USC-SI_kJalpha

    Name: SI_kJalpha
    Abbreviation: USC-SI_kJalpha
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: University of Southern California
    Description: A heterogeneous infection rate model with vaccines and multiple variants and adaptive to changing trends. Uses genomics data to estimate the prevelance of the variants.
    Contributors: Ajitesh Srivastava <ajiteshs@usc.edu>, Frost Tianjian Xu
    License: MIT
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.05180
    Methods: We use our own epidemic model called SI-kJalpha. Our model can consider the effect of many complexities of the epidemic process and yet be simplified to a few parameters that are learned using fast linear regressions. Therefore, our approach can learn and generate forecasts extremely quickly. On a 2 core desktop machine, our approach takes only 3.18s to tune hyper-parameters, learn parameters and generate 100 days of forecasts of reported cases and deaths for all the states in the US. The total execution time for 184 countries is 11.83s and for more than 3000 US counties is 30s. Despite being fast, the accuracy of our forecasts is on par with the state-of-the-art as demonstrated on the leaderboard page. at https://scc-usc.github.io/ReCOVER-COVID-19. For each state, we model hospitalizations as a separate compartment, as a linear function of recent cases with heterogeneous rates. This means that for some hyper-parameter J, those who were infected at time t-1 to t-J will have a separate rate from those infected at t-(J+1) to t-2J, and so on. This is similar to how we perform death forecasts. For long-term forecasts (more than a few days in the future), the cases are forecasted first based on our SIkJalpha model, which forms the input to hospitalization prediction. While we account for changing trends by putting more emphasis on recently seen data, we assume that the trends will remain the same in the future for our point forecasts. We try to account for changing trends in the future in our quantile forecasts by modeling the empirical error our approach makes using a Random Forest. Genomics data is used to estimate the prevelance of all the variants per state. A logistic regression model is used to fit the number of samples for each variant on a given day.
    Home: https://scc-usc.github.io/ReCOVER-COVID-19
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19

    Forecasts (94)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-05 (No data)
    2019-12-30 (No data)
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    2020-08-02 2020-08-02-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-08-03 11:37:07 UTC 2020-08-03 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-05-10 2020-05-10-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:06:31 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-05-10 2020-05-10-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-04 20:53:56 UTC 2020-07-01 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-05-23 (No data)
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    2020-08-09 2020-08-09-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-08-10 00:39:56 UTC 2020-08-10 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-08-16 2020-08-16-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-08-17 00:42:37 UTC 2020-08-17 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-08-23 2020-08-23-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-08-24 06:24:36 UTC 2020-08-24 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-08-30 2020-08-30-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-08-31 00:27:57 UTC 2020-08-31 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-09-06 2020-09-06-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-09-07 00:47:50 UTC 2020-09-07 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-08 (No data)
    2020-09-13 2020-09-13-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-09-14 15:11:49 UTC 2020-09-14 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-19 (No data)
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    2020-07-27 2020-07-27-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-07-28 14:34:30 UTC 2020-07-28 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-08-03 (No data)
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    2020-10-26 2020-10-26-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-10-27 01:37:33 UTC 2020-10-27 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-10-26 2020-10-26-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-04 20:55:18 UTC 2020-10-28 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-11-02 (No data)
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    2020-05-17 2020-05-17-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:08:25 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-05-17 2020-05-17-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-04 20:54:36 UTC 2020-07-01 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-05-13 (No data)
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    2020-05-24 2020-05-24-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:04:33 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-05-24 2020-05-24-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-04 20:53:25 UTC 2020-07-01 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-05-20 (No data)
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    2020-05-31 2020-05-31-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:07:42 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-05-31 2020-05-31-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-04 20:54:21 UTC 2020-07-01 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-05-26 (No data)
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    2020-06-07 2020-06-07-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:07:09 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-06-07 2020-06-07-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-04 20:54:07 UTC 2020-07-01 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-06-05 (No data)
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    2020-06-14 2020-06-14-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:05:16 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-06-14 2020-06-14-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-04 20:53:39 UTC 2020-07-01 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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    2020-06-21 2020-06-21-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:10:06 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-06-21 2020-06-21-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-04 20:54:51 UTC 2020-07-01 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-06-23 2020-06-23-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:05:49 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-06-24 (No data)
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    2020-06-27 2020-06-27-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 02:09:28 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-06-28 2020-06-28-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-06-29 21:36:27 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-07-05 2020-07-05-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-07-07 13:29:10 UTC 2020-07-07 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-07-07 (No data)
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    2020-07-12 2020-07-12-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-07-15 21:28:16 UTC 2020-07-15 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-07-10 (No data)
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    2020-07-19 2020-07-19-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-07-20 11:18:57 UTC 2020-07-20 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-07-21 (No data)
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    2020-07-26 2020-07-26-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-07-27 11:21:45 UTC 2020-07-27 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-10 (No data)
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    2020-09-20 2020-09-20-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 22:19:51 UTC 2020-09-20 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-09-20 2020-09-20-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-09-22 01:03:53 UTC 2020-09-22 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-09-22 (No data)
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    2020-09-27 2020-09-27-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-09-28 00:52:35 UTC 2020-09-28 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-26 (No data)
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    2020-10-04 2020-10-04-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-10-05 06:30:31 UTC 2020-10-05 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-10-08 (No data)
    2020-10-11 2020-10-11-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-10-12 12:45:08 UTC 2020-10-12 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-06-29 (No data)
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    2021-07-11 2021-07-11-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-07-12 06:29:59 UTC 2021-07-12 06:29:59 UTC
    2021-07-13 (No data)
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    2021-07-18 2021-07-18-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-07-19 06:30:15 UTC 2021-07-19 06:30:15 UTC
    2021-07-20 (No data)
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    2021-07-25 2021-07-25-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-07-26 06:31:16 UTC 2021-07-26 06:31:16 UTC
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    2021-08-22 2021-08-22-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-08-23 06:25:45 UTC 2021-08-23 06:25:45 UTC
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    2021-09-12 2021-09-12-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-09-13 00:31:30 UTC 2021-09-13 00:31:30 UTC
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    2021-09-19 2021-09-19-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-09-20 00:27:01 UTC 2021-09-20 00:27:01 UTC
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    2020-10-18 2020-10-18-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-10-19 06:45:31 UTC 2020-10-19 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-07-04 2021-07-04-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-07-05 03:07:03 UTC 2021-07-05 03:07:03 UTC
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    2021-08-01 2021-08-01-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-08-02 03:08:50 UTC 2021-08-02 03:08:50 UTC
    2021-08-08 2021-08-08-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-08-09 02:59:58 UTC 2021-08-09 02:59:58 UTC
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    2020-10-25 2020-10-25-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-10-26 19:13:36 UTC 2020-10-26 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-10-29 (No data)
    2020-11-01 2020-11-01-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 22:22:20 UTC 2020-11-02 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-11-01 2020-11-01-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-11-11 21:40:12 UTC 2020-11-11 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
    2020-11-04 (No data)
    2020-11-08 2020-11-08-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-11-11 21:38:44 UTC 2020-11-11 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-11-15 2020-11-15-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-11-16 18:26:59 UTC 2020-11-16 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-11-22 2020-11-22-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 22:25:09 UTC 2020-11-22 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-11-22 2020-11-22-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-11-24 06:24:01 UTC 2020-11-24 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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    2020-11-29 2020-11-29-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2020-11-30 12:28:00 UTC 2020-11-30 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-12-06 2020-12-06-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 22:28:55 UTC 2020-12-07 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-12-06 2020-12-06-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 01:25:23 UTC 2021-01-11 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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    2020-12-13 2020-12-13-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-20 21:42:28 UTC 2020-12-14 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-12-13 2020-12-13-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 23:36:48 UTC 2021-01-11 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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    2020-12-20 2020-12-20-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-20 21:36:35 UTC 2020-12-21 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-12-20 2020-12-20-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 01:16:05 UTC 2021-01-11 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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    2020-12-27 2020-12-27-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-20 21:39:53 UTC 2020-12-28 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
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    2020-12-30 (No data)
    2021-01-03 2021-01-03-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-20 21:38:17 UTC 2021-01-03 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2021-01-03 2021-01-03-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 01:36:47 UTC 2021-01-11 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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    2021-01-10 2021-01-10-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-12 01:20:05 UTC 2021-01-11 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-17 2021-01-17-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-18 12:40:26 UTC 2021-01-18 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-24 2021-01-24-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-01-25 19:06:33 UTC 2021-01-25 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-31 2021-01-31-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-02-01 12:29:07 UTC 2021-02-01 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-07 2021-02-07-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-02-08 12:31:00 UTC 2021-02-08 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-14 2021-02-14-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-02-15 06:26:30 UTC 2021-02-15 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-21 2021-02-21-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-02-22 12:25:29 UTC 2021-02-22 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-28 2021-02-28-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-03-01 06:28:31 UTC 2021-03-01 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-07 2021-03-07-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-03-08 06:23:43 UTC 2021-03-08 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-14 2021-03-14-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-03-15 06:25:32 UTC 2021-03-15 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-28 2021-03-28-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-03-29 06:25:06 UTC 2021-03-29 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-04 2021-04-04-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-04-05 06:20:03 UTC 2021-04-05 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-11 2021-04-11-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-04-12 06:23:51 UTC 2021-04-12 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-18 2021-04-18-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-04-19 00:25:07 UTC 2021-04-18 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-25 2021-04-25-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-04-26 00:26:19 UTC 2021-04-25 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-02 2021-05-02-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-03 06:30:14 UTC 2021-05-03 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-09 2021-05-09-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-10 00:37:18 UTC 2021-05-09 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-16 2021-05-16-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-17 18:55:57 UTC 2021-05-17 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-23 2021-05-23-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-24 00:49:54 UTC 2021-05-23 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-30 2021-05-30-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-05-31 01:21:09 UTC 2021-05-31 01:21:09 UTC
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    2021-06-06 2021-06-06-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-06-07 01:00:25 UTC 2021-06-07 01:00:25 UTC
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    2021-06-13 2021-06-13-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-06-14 00:42:56 UTC 2021-06-14 00:42:56 UTC 1 of 3
    2021-06-13 2021-06-13-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-06-15 15:58:20 UTC 2021-06-15 15:58:20 UTC 2 of 3
    2021-06-13 2021-06-13-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-06-21 18:46:49 UTC 2021-06-21 18:46:49 UTC 3 of 3
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    2021-06-20 2021-06-20-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-06-21 03:13:22 UTC 2021-06-21 03:13:22 UTC
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    2021-08-15 2021-08-15-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-08-16 18:31:21 UTC 2021-08-16 18:31:21 UTC
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    2021-06-27 2021-06-27-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-06-28 06:33:50 UTC 2021-06-28 06:33:50 UTC
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    2021-08-29 2021-08-29-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-08-30 00:25:01 UTC 2021-08-30 00:25:01 UTC
    2021-09-05 2021-09-05-USC-SI_kJalpha.csv 2021-09-06 00:32:45 UTC 2021-09-06 00:32:45 UTC
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