Model: Columbia University - CU-scenario_mid

    Name: scenario_mid
    Abbreviation: CU-scenario_mid
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Columbia University
    Description: We produce different intervention scenarios, assuming various interventions and rates of compliance are implemented in the future. This projection assumes relatively moderate transmission.
    Contributors: Sen Pei, Teresa Yamana, Sasikiran Kandula, Wan Yang, Marta Galanti, Jeffrey Shaman <jls106@cumc.columbia.edu>
    License: Apache license 2.0
    Notes: other
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303
    Methods: This metapopulation county-level SEIR model makes projections of future COVID-19 incidence and deaths. We produce a number of different intervention scenarios, each assuming various interventions and rates of compliance are implemented in the future. October 4 - present: '5_1xhold': This scenario assumes a one-time 5% increase in contact rates, which is applied at the start of the projection and maintained for one week. After one week, the reproduction number R is set to 1 for the remainder of the projection. August 23 - September 27: '5_2xhold': This scenario assumes a weekly 5% increase in contact rates for two weeks. The following week, the reproduction number R is set to 1 for the remainder of the projection. June 14 - August 22 'season4': This scenario assumes that current contact rates will remain unchanged in the future. In addition, we assume a seasonal decrease in disease transmission leading to a weekly 4% decrease in reproductive number R(t). May 3 - June 7 '80contactw5p': For states maintaining or increasing current social distancing restrictions, we apply a 20% weekly reductions of contact rates, as described above. However, in states that reopen, we apply an increase to the contact rate of counties in those states. In the first scenario, we apply a one-time 10% increase to the contact rate during the week that the state is scheduled to reopen and maintain this new increased rate for the remainder of the projection. April 12 - April 26 '70contact': This scenario mimics adaptive adjustments in contact imposed both by government regulations (e.g. school closures, restrictions on mass gatherings) and population self-regulation (e.g. isolation, mask wearing, social distancing). Upon initiation of projections, all counties with 10 or more confirmed cases impose a 30% contact rate reduction. Each week following, if a county newly exceeds 10 confirmed cases, a 30% contact rate reduction is imposed, depending on the projection scenario. Counties that had previously exceeded 10 confirmed cases and also experience an increase in the number of weekly reported confirmed cases impose a further, multiplicative 30% contact rate reduction, depending on the projection scenario.
    Home: https://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/jls106/publications/covid-19-findings-simulations/
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/shaman-lab/COVID-19Projection

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