Model: Columbia University - CU-scenario_low

    Name: scenario_low
    Abbreviation: CU-scenario_low
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Columbia University
    Description: We produce different intervention scenarios, assuming various interventions and rates of compliance are implemented in the future. This projection assumes relatively low transmission.
    Contributors: Sen Pei, Teresa Yamana, Sasikiran Kandula, Wan Yang, Marta Galanti, Jeffrey Shaman <jls106@cumc.columbia.edu>
    License: Apache license 2.0
    Notes: other
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303
    Methods: This metapopulation county-level SEIR model makes projections of future COVID-19 incidence and deaths. We produce a number of different intervention scenarios, each assuming various interventions and rates of compliance are implemented in the future. The alternate model names below correspond with the filenames in our repository and visualizations. November 12 - present: '5_1xbeta': This scenario assumes a one-time 5% increase in contact rates, which is applied at the start of the projection and maintained for one week. After one week, the reproduction number R is set to 1. November 8 - November 11: '5_1xhold': This scenario assumes a one-time 5% increase in contact rates, which is applied at the start of the projection and maintained for one week. After one week, the reproduction number R is set to 1 for the remainder of the projection. July19 - November 5 'reduce10': This scenario assumes a weekly 10% decrease in contact rates. June 14 - July18 '5_2xhold': This scenario assumes a weekly 5% increase in contact rates for two weeks. The following week, the reproduction number R is set to 1 for the remainder of the projection. May 3 - June 7 '80contact1x5p' : This scenario assumes a weekly 20% decrease in counties with growing weekly cases and stay-at-home orders in place, and a one-time 5% increase in states that have reopened. April 12 - April 26 '60contact': This scenario mimics adaptive adjustments in contact imposed both by government regulations (e.g. school closures, restrictions on mass gatherings) and population self-regulation (e.g. isolation, mask wearing, social distancing). Upon initiation of projections, all counties with 10 or more confirmed cases impose a 40% contact rate reduction. Each week following, if a county newly exceeds 10 confirmed cases, a 40% contact rate reduction is imposed, depending on the projection scenario. Counties that had previously exceeded 10 confirmed cases and also experience an increase in the number of weekly reported confirmed cases impose a further, multiplicative 40% contact rate reduction, depending on the projection scenario.
    Home: https://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/jls106/publications/covid-19-findings-simulations/
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/shaman-lab/COVID-19Projection

    Forecasts (81)

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