Model: Columbia_UNC - Columbia_UNC-SurvCon

    Name: Survival-Convolution Models
    Abbreviation: Columbia_UNC-SurvCon
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Columbia_UNC
    Description: A survival-convolution model with piece-wise transmission rates that incorporates latent incubation period and provides time-varying effective reproductive number.
    Contributors: Yuanjia Wang <yw2016@cumc.columbia.edu>, Donglin Zeng <dzeng@email.unc.edu>, Qinxia Wang <qw2223@cumc.columbia.edu>, Shanghong Xie <sx2168@cumc.columbia.edu>
    License: Apache license 2.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00325/full?&utm_source=Email_to_authors_&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=T1_11.5e1_author&utm_campaign=Email_publication&field=&journalName=Frontiers_in_Public_Health&id=561170
    Methods: We predict COVID-19 daily new cases using a robust and parsimonious survival-convolution model. We account for transmission during the pre-symptomatic incubation period, use a time-varying effective reproductive number (Rt) to reflect the temporal trend of transmission and change in response to a public health intervention, and quantify uncertainty by permutation. We use a regression model to predict cumulative deaths from estimated time-lagged cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases.
    Home: https://github.com/COVID19BIOSTAT/covid19_prediction
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (61)

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    2021-04-18 2021-04-18-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-04-19 18:38:51 UTC 2021-04-19 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-25 2021-04-25-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-04-26 00:23:14 UTC 2021-04-25 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-02 2021-05-02-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-05-03 00:44:38 UTC 2021-05-02 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-09 2021-05-09-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-05-10 12:29:47 UTC 2021-05-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-05-10 (No data)
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    2021-05-16 2021-05-16-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-05-17 00:45:29 UTC 2021-05-16 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-30 2021-05-30-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-05-31 01:20:18 UTC 2021-05-31 01:20:18 UTC
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    2021-06-20 2021-06-20-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-06-21 03:15:32 UTC 2021-06-21 03:15:32 UTC
    2021-06-21 (No data)
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    2021-08-15 2021-08-15-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-08-16 18:39:55 UTC 2021-08-16 18:39:55 UTC
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    2021-06-27 2021-06-27-Columbia_UNC-SurvCon.csv 2021-06-28 00:41:12 UTC 2021-06-28 00:41:12 UTC
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