Model: EpiForecasts group at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - epiforecasts-ensemble1

    Name: ensemble1
    Abbreviation: epiforecasts-ensemble1
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: EpiForecasts group at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Description: A deaths forecast using a mean ensemble of three different models: An Rt based forecast, a timeseries forecast using deaths only and a timeseries forecast using deaths and cases.
    Contributors: Katharine Sherratt (LSHTM)<katharine.sherratt@lshtm.ac.uk>, Nikos Bosse (LSHTM), Sam Abbott (LSHTM), Sophie Meakin (LSHTM), Joel Hellewell (LSHTM), James Munday (LSHTM), Sebastian Funk (LSHTM)<sebastian.funk@lshtm.ac.uk>
    License: MIT
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16006.1
    Methods: 2020-06-15: A deaths forecast using the renewal equation and time-series forecasts of the time-varying reproduction number; to be updated as an ensemble forecast. 2020-07-13: The models included are: 1) A deaths forecast using the renewal equation to estimate Rt and project it into the future. For details see github.com/epiforecasts/EpiSoon and github.com/epiforecasts/EpiNow. 2) A timeseries based on the forecastHybrid package and 3) a second timeseries model that also uses cases as a predictor.
    Home: https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid-us-deaths
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid-us-deaths

    Forecasts (20)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
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    2020-06-15 2020-06-15-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-06-15 21:18:27 EDT
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    2020-06-29 2020-06-29-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-06-29 17:41:42 EDT
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    2020-07-06 2020-07-06-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-07-07 09:44:03 EDT
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    2020-07-13 2020-07-13-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-07-14 00:08:34 EDT
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    2020-07-19 2020-07-19-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-07-20 15:11:33 EDT
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