Model: EpiForecasts group at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine - epiforecasts-ensemble1

    Name: ensemble1
    Abbreviation: epiforecasts-ensemble1
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: EpiForecasts group at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    Description: A deaths forecast using a mean ensemble of three different models: An Rt based forecast, a timeseries forecast using deaths only and a timeseries forecast using deaths and cases.
    Contributors: Katharine Sherratt (LSHTM)<katharine.sherratt@lshtm.ac.uk>, Nikos Bosse (LSHTM), Sam Abbott (LSHTM)<sam.abbott@lshtm.ac.uk>, Sophie Meakin (LSHTM), Joel Hellewell (LSHTM), James Munday (LSHTM), Sebastian Funk (LSHTM)<sebastian.funk@lshtm.ac.uk>
    License: MIT
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16006.1
    Methods: 2020-06-15: A deaths forecast using the renewal equation and time-series forecasts of the time-varying reproduction number; to be updated as an ensemble forecast. 2020-07-13: The models included are: 1) A deaths forecast using the renewal equation to estimate Rt and project it into the future. For details see github.com/epiforecasts/EpiSoon and github.com/epiforecasts/EpiNow. 2) A timeseries based on the forecastHybrid package and 3) a second timeseries model that also uses cases as a predictor.
    Home: https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid-us-deaths
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/epiforecasts/covid-us-deaths

    Forecasts (92)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-05 (No data)
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    2020-06-15 2020-06-15-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-06-16 01:18:27 UTC 2020-06-16 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-06-22 2020-06-22-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-06-22 23:00:49 UTC 2020-06-22 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-06-29 2020-06-29-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-06-29 21:41:42 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-07-06 2020-07-06-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-07-07 13:44:03 UTC 2020-07-07 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-07-13 2020-07-13-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-07-14 04:08:34 UTC 2020-07-14 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-07-20 (No data)
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    2020-08-03 2020-08-03-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-08-03 19:04:54 UTC 2020-08-03 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-08-10 2020-08-10-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-08-11 01:03:17 UTC 2020-08-11 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-08-17 2020-08-17-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-08-19 18:19:15 UTC 2020-08-19 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-08-24 2020-08-24-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-08-25 01:12:27 UTC 2020-08-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-08-31 2020-08-31-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-09-01 01:11:41 UTC 2020-09-01 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-07 2020-09-07-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-09-08 00:59:05 UTC 2020-09-08 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-14 2020-09-14-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-09-15 01:27:21 UTC 2020-09-15 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-21 2020-09-21-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-09-22 06:26:39 UTC 2020-09-22 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-28 2020-09-28-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-09-29 01:50:14 UTC 2020-09-29 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-10-05 2020-10-05-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-10-06 13:31:22 UTC 2020-10-06 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-10-12 2020-10-12-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-10-13 12:32:51 UTC 2020-10-13 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-10-19 2020-10-19-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-10-20 19:06:21 UTC 2020-10-20 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-10-26 2020-10-26-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-10-27 01:33:21 UTC 2020-10-27 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-11-02 2020-11-02-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-11-03 01:00:07 UTC 2020-11-03 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-11-09 2020-11-09-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-11-11 21:18:07 UTC 2020-11-11 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-11-16 2020-11-16-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-11-17 00:27:39 UTC 2020-11-17 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-11-23 2020-11-23-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-11-24 00:26:04 UTC 2020-11-23 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-11-30 2020-11-30-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-12-01 00:26:51 UTC 2020-11-30 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-12-07 2020-12-07-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-12-08 00:32:28 UTC 2020-12-07 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-12-14 2020-12-14-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-01-12 22:37:41 UTC 2020-12-14 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-12-14 2020-12-14-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-01-05 16:25:54 UTC 2021-01-05 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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    2020-12-28 2020-12-28-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-01-05 16:26:08 UTC 2021-01-05 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-07-19 2020-07-19-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2020-07-20 19:11:33 UTC 2020-07-20 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-07-05 2021-07-05-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-07-06 01:17:06 UTC 2021-07-06 01:17:06 UTC
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    2021-08-02 2021-08-02-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-08-02 18:38:20 UTC 2021-08-02 18:38:20 UTC
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    2021-08-09 2021-08-09-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-08-10 00:33:49 UTC 2021-08-10 00:33:49 UTC
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    2021-08-23 2021-08-23-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-08-24 18:27:55 UTC 2021-08-24 18:27:55 UTC
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    2021-09-06 2021-09-06-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-09-06 18:41:24 UTC 2021-09-06 18:41:24 UTC
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    2021-10-25 2021-10-25-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-10-25 18:26:25 UTC 2021-10-25 18:26:25 UTC
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    2021-12-06 2021-12-06-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-12-07 01:00:03 UTC 2021-12-07 01:00:03 UTC
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    2021-12-13 2021-12-13-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-12-14 00:38:38 UTC 2021-12-14 00:38:38 UTC
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    2021-12-27 2021-12-27-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-12-27 18:35:28 UTC 2021-12-27 18:35:28 UTC
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    2022-01-10 2022-01-10-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2022-01-10 18:33:12 UTC 2022-01-10 18:33:12 UTC
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    2022-02-28 2022-02-28-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2022-02-28 18:27:58 UTC 2022-02-28 18:27:58 UTC
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    2021-07-12 2021-07-12-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-07-13 00:47:53 UTC 2021-07-13 00:47:53 UTC
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    2021-08-16 2021-08-16-epiforecasts-ensemble1.csv 2021-08-17 00:34:44 UTC 2021-08-17 00:34:44 UTC
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