Model: Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy - CDDEP-ABM

    Name: GlobalAgentBasedModel
    Abbreviation: CDDEP-ABM
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy
    Description: GlobalAgentBasedModel
    Contributors: Eili Klein < klein@cddep.org>, Gary Lin < glin15@jhu.edu>, Yupeng Yang <yang@cddep.org>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: We break down the SEIR model into 7 compartments: Susceptible individuals (S), Exposed individuals (E), Contagious individuals who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic (C), Infected with moderate or non-severe symptoms (I_N), Infected with severe symptoms (I_S), Recovered (R) and Deaths (D). We fit our model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method in each county to estimate the parameters set (alpha, beta, mu, h, gamma, theta, delta...). We start with the initial parameters set from other studies and iterate the set in the model by calculating and comparing the likelihood values between the real cases and projected cases, finally we get our best projected curve (with 95% confidence interval) which has minimum sum of squared residuals (SSR).
    Home: https://cddep.org/
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (2)

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    2020-06-01 2020-06-01-CDDEP-GlobalAgentBasedModel.csv 2020-06-08 23:18:30 UTC 2020-06-08 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 2
    2020-06-01 2020-06-01-CDDEP-GlobalAgentBasedModel.csv 2021-05-04 20:52:27 UTC 2020-07-06 12:00:00 UTC 2 of 2
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