Model: STH - STH-3PU

    Name: 3 Phase Unadjusted
    Abbreviation: STH-3PU
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: STH
    Description: Model assumes pandemics hit in 3 distinct phases. Each phase can be represented by a single function and therefore the variables can be isolated.
    Contributors: Steve Horstman <covid19_model@nym.hush.com>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: Simplified model: Deaths(x) = Deaths(x-1)*R * (1-E) * (1-H) where R is the rate of growth in a given society with no prior infections and no societal intervention. E is the effectiveness of societal interventions such as social distancing, face masks, etc. H is the % of the population with immunity to the virus In modeling E known societal restrictions are used for near-term projections. Projections greater than 1 month out assume that effectiveness will be adjusted relative to the daily deaths at that location on April 30. i.e. The more that day's deaths is below the April 30, mark the greater the effectiveness will be reduced and the more that day's deaths exceed deaths on April 30, the more the effectiveness is increased. In modeling H, death totals and not infection totals are used. Current assumptions being a 0.50% death rate and 20% of the population had some prior resistance.
    Home: https://public.tableau.com/profile/covid19model#!/vizhome/COVID-19DeathProjections/USDeaths
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (72)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2020-01-06 (No data)
    2020-01-13 (No data)
    2020-01-20 (No data)
    2020-01-27 (No data)
    2020-02-03 (No data)
    2020-02-10 (No data)
    2020-02-17 (No data)
    2020-02-24 (No data)
    2020-03-02 (No data)
    2020-03-09 (No data)
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    2020-03-27 (No data)
    2020-03-29 (No data)
    2020-03-30 (No data)
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    2020-04-01 (No data)
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    2020-04-19 (No data)
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    2020-04-28 (No data)
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    2020-05-28 (No data)
    2020-05-29 2020-05-29-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-01 14:11:58 EDT
    2020-05-30 2020-05-30-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-01 16:59:24 EDT
    2020-05-31 (No data)
    2020-06-01 2020-06-01-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-01 16:59:31 EDT
    2020-06-02 2020-06-02-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-02 10:31:41 EDT
    2020-06-03 2020-06-03-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-08 19:19:29 EDT
    2020-06-04 2020-06-04-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-08 19:19:22 EDT
    2020-06-05 2020-06-05-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-08 19:19:41 EDT
    2020-06-06 2020-06-06-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-08 19:58:02 EDT
    2020-06-07 2020-06-07-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-08 19:19:38 EDT
    2020-06-08 2020-06-08-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-08 19:58:07 EDT
    2020-06-09 2020-06-09-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-09 09:11:27 EDT
    2020-06-10 2020-06-10-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-10 10:00:26 EDT
    2020-06-11 2020-06-11-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-11 10:46:41 EDT
    2020-06-12 2020-06-12-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-12 09:08:00 EDT
    2020-06-13 2020-06-13-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-13 09:59:48 EDT
    2020-06-14 2020-06-14-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-15 10:01:08 EDT
    2020-06-15 2020-06-15-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-15 10:01:03 EDT
    2020-06-16 2020-06-16-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-16 10:27:59 EDT
    2020-06-17 2020-06-17-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-17 16:24:44 EDT
    2020-06-18 2020-06-18-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-18 09:16:33 EDT
    2020-06-19 2020-06-19-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-19 09:26:36 EDT
    2020-06-20 2020-06-20-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-21 16:58:30 EDT
    2020-06-21 2020-06-21-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-22 18:09:50 EDT
    2020-06-22 2020-06-22-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-22 18:09:58 EDT
    2020-06-23 2020-06-23-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-23 09:13:17 EDT
    2020-06-24 2020-06-24-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-24 22:52:20 EDT
    2020-06-25 2020-06-25-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-26 14:28:36 EDT
    2020-06-26 2020-06-26-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-26 14:28:32 EDT
    2020-06-27 2020-06-27-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-27 10:51:45 EDT
    2020-06-28 2020-06-28-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-28 12:21:40 EDT
    2020-06-29 2020-06-29-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-29 08:16:55 EDT
    2020-06-30 2020-06-30-STH-3PU.csv 2020-06-30 08:28:14 EDT
    2020-07-01 2020-07-01-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-01 11:00:07 EDT
    2020-07-02 2020-07-02-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-03 00:00:32 EDT
    2020-07-03 2020-07-03-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-05 08:27:57 EDT
    2020-07-04 2020-07-04-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-05 08:28:02 EDT
    2020-07-05 2020-07-05-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-06 19:47:37 EDT
    2020-07-06 2020-07-06-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-06 19:47:43 EDT
    2020-07-07 2020-07-07-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-08 08:17:52 EDT
    2020-07-08 2020-07-08-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-13 12:33:14 EDT
    2020-07-09 2020-07-09-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-13 12:32:58 EDT
    2020-07-10 2020-07-10-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-13 12:33:19 EDT
    2020-07-11 2020-07-11-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-13 12:33:04 EDT
    2020-07-12 2020-07-12-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-13 12:33:08 EDT
    2020-07-13 2020-07-13-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-13 12:33:26 EDT
    2020-07-14 2020-07-14-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-14 13:47:12 EDT
    2020-07-15 2020-07-15-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-20 07:21:34 EDT
    2020-07-16 2020-07-16-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-20 07:21:30 EDT
    2020-07-17 2020-07-17-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-20 07:21:26 EDT
    2020-07-18 (No data)
    2020-07-19 2020-07-19-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-20 07:21:37 EDT
    2020-07-20 (No data)
    2020-07-21 2020-07-21-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-21 10:26:16 EDT
    2020-07-22 2020-07-22-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-22 07:12:30 EDT
    2020-07-23 2020-07-23-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-24 07:13:31 EDT
    2020-07-24 (No data)
    2020-07-25 2020-07-25-STH-3PU.csv 2020-07-27 07:20:39 EDT
    2020-07-26 (No data)
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    2020-08-01 2020-08-01-STH-3PU.csv 2020-08-02 07:20:41 EDT
    2020-08-02 (No data)
    2020-08-03 (No data)
    2020-08-04 (No data)
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    2020-08-09 2020-08-09-STH-3PU.csv 2020-08-09 20:39:16 EDT
    2020-08-10 (No data)
    2020-08-11 (No data)
    2020-08-12 (No data)
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    2020-08-14 (No data)
    2020-08-15 2020-08-15-STH-3PU.csv 2020-08-15 14:17:31 EDT
    2020-08-16 2020-08-16-STH-3PU.csv 2020-08-16 20:40:33 EDT
    2020-08-17 (No data)
    2020-08-18 (No data)
    2020-08-19 (No data)
    2020-08-20 (No data)
    2020-08-21 (No data)
    2020-08-22 2020-08-22-STH-3PU.csv 2020-08-22 14:18:57 EDT
    2020-08-23 2020-08-23-STH-3PU.csv 2020-08-23 14:19:25 EDT
    2020-08-24 (No data)
    2020-08-25 (No data)
    2020-08-26 (No data)
    2020-08-27 (No data)
    2020-08-28 (No data)
    2020-08-29 (No data)
    2020-08-30 2020-08-30-STH-3PU.csv 2020-08-30 20:25:29 EDT
    2020-08-31 (No data)
    2020-09-01 (No data)
    2020-09-02 (No data)
    2020-09-03 (No data)
    2020-09-04 (No data)
    2020-09-05 2020-09-05-STH-3PU.csv 2020-09-05 20:48:29 EDT
    2020-09-06 2020-09-06-STH-3PU.csv 2020-09-06 14:25:40 EDT
    2020-09-07 (No data)
    2020-09-08 (No data)
    2020-09-09 (No data)
    2020-09-10 (No data)
    2020-09-11 (No data)
    2020-09-12 2020-09-12-STH-3PU.csv 2020-09-13 14:22:54 EDT
    2020-09-13 2020-09-13-STH-3PU.csv 2020-09-14 11:13:50 EDT
    2020-09-14 (No data)
    2020-09-15 (No data)
    2020-09-16 (No data)
    2020-09-17 (No data)
    2020-09-18 (No data)
    2020-09-19 2020-09-19-STH-3PU.csv 2020-09-20 20:56:50 EDT
    2020-09-20 (No data)
    2020-09-21 2020-09-21-STH-3PU.csv 2020-09-21 14:27:26 EDT
    2020-09-22 (No data)
    2020-09-23 (No data)
    2020-09-24 (No data)
    2020-09-25 (No data)
    2020-09-26 (No data)
    2020-09-27 (No data)
    2020-09-28 (No data)
    2020-09-29 2020-09-29-STH-3PU.csv 2020-09-29 11:09:28 EDT
    2020-09-30 (No data)
    2020-10-01 (No data)
    2020-10-02 (No data)
    2020-10-03 (No data)
    2020-10-04 (No data)
    2020-10-05 2020-10-05-STH-3PU.csv 2020-10-05 14:30:04 EDT
    2020-10-08 (No data)
    2020-10-11 (No data)
    2020-10-12 2020-10-12-STH-3PU.csv 2020-10-12 14:25:53 EDT
    2020-10-15 (No data)
    2020-10-16 (No data)
    2020-10-18 2020-10-18-STH-3PU.csv 2020-10-18 21:14:26 EDT
    2020-10-19 (No data)
    2020-10-22 (No data)
    2020-10-25 (No data)
    2020-10-26 2020-10-26-STH-3PU.csv 2020-10-26 15:16:55 EDT
    2020-11-02 (No data)
    2020-11-09 (No data)
    2020-11-16 (No data)
    2020-11-23 (No data)
    2020-11-30 (No data)
    2020-12-07 (No data)
    2020-12-14 (No data)
    2020-12-21 (No data)
    2020-12-28 (No data)