Model: Predictive Science Inc - PSI-DRAFT

    Name: Disease Rapid Analysis and Forecasting Tool
    Abbreviation: PSI-DRAFT
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Predictive Science Inc
    Description: A stochastic/deterministic, single-population SEIRX model that stratifies by both age distribution and disease severity and includes generic intervention fitting.
    Contributors: James Turtle <jturtle@predsci.com>, Michal Ben-Nun <mbennun@predsci.com>, Pete Riley <pete@predsci.com>
    License: MIT
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: Deterministic fit of a compartmental SEIRX model to cumulative death profiles, followed by stochastic simulations using the optimal parameters. All compartments are stratified by age. 'I' compartments are additionally divided by disease severity into Asymptomatic, Mild, Flu-like, and Severe. Severe disease is defined by the need for an ICU bed. Interventions are fit generically to an n-value smooth function. Forward projections are conditional on interventions and reproductive number remaining unchanged. Updates: July 20, 2020 - model is fit using MCMC procedure August 10, 2020 - R(t) is fit using n=3, 4, and 5 values. The n-value resulting in the lowest AICc score is used for the forecast. September 6, 2021 - Update to sampling procedure for R(t) time-intervals. September 13, 2021 - Model now estimates system states on June 1, 2021 and then fits to data from June 1 to present.
    Home: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/tree/master/data-processed/PSI-DRAFT
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/predsci/DRAFT

    Forecasts (73)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
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    2021-05-31 2021-05-31-PSI-DRAFT.csv 2021-05-31 19:46:47 UTC 2021-05-31 19:46:47 UTC
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    2021-06-07 2021-06-07-PSI-DRAFT.csv 2021-06-08 01:59:45 UTC 2021-06-08 01:59:45 UTC
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    2021-06-14 2021-06-14-PSI-DRAFT.csv 2021-06-14 18:45:01 UTC 2021-06-14 18:45:01 UTC
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    2021-06-21 2021-06-21-PSI-DRAFT.csv 2021-06-22 00:55:01 UTC 2021-06-22 00:55:01 UTC
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    2021-06-28 2021-06-28-PSI-DRAFT.csv 2021-06-29 01:39:32 UTC 2021-06-29 01:39:32 UTC
    2021-08-25 (No data)
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    2021-09-20 2021-09-20-PSI-DRAFT.csv 2021-09-20 18:44:37 UTC 2021-09-20 18:44:37 UTC