Model: Columbia University - CU-select

    Name: select
    Abbreviation: CU-select
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Columbia University
    Description: A metapopulation county-level SEIR model for projecting future COVID-19 incidence and deaths. This forecast is the scenario we believe to be most plausible given the current setting.
    Contributors: Sen Pei, Teresa Yamana, Sasikiran Kandula, Wan Yang, Marta Galanti, Jeffrey Shaman <jls106@cumc.columbia.edu>
    License: Apache license 2.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303
    Methods: This metapopulation county-level SEIR model makes projections of future COVID-19 incidence and deaths. We produce a number of different intervention scenarios, each assuming various interventions and rates of compliance are implemented in the future. This submission is the selection of the weekly scenario we believe to be most plausible given current observations and planned intervention policies. The selected scenarios are listed below: June 14 - present '5_2xhold': This scenario assumes a weekly 5% increase in contact rates for two weeks. The following week, the reproduction number R is set to 1 for the remainder of the projection. June 7 '80contact1x5p' : This scenario assumes a weekly 20% decrease in counties with growing weekly cases and stay-at-home orders in place, and a one-time 5% increase in states that have reopened. May 7 - June 4 '80contactw5p': For states maintaining or increasing current social distancing restrictions, we apply a 20% weekly reductions of contact rates, as described above. However, in states that reopen, we apply a weekly 5% increase to the contact rate of counties in those states. May 3 '80contact1x10p': For states maintaining or increasing current social distancing restrictions, we apply a 20% weekly reductions of contact rates, as described above. However, in states that reopen, we apply a one-time 10% increase to the contact rate during the week that the state is scheduled to reopen and maintain this new increased rate for the remainder of the projection. April 12 - April 26 '70contact': This scenario mimics adaptive adjustments in contact imposed both by government regulations (e.g. school closures, restrictions on mass gatherings) and population self-regulation (e.g. isolation, mask wearing, social distancing). Upon initiation of projections, all counties with 10 or more confirmed cases impose a 30% contact rate reduction. Each week following, if a county newly exceeds 10 confirmed cases, a 30% contact rate reduction is imposed, depending on the projection scenario. Counties that had previously exceeded 10 confirmed cases and also experience an increase in the number of weekly reported confirmed cases impose a further, multiplicative 30% contact rate reduction, depending on the projection scenario.
    Home: https://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/jls106/publications/covid-19-findings-simulations/
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/shaman-lab/COVID-19Projection

    Forecasts (41)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
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    2020-04-12 2020-04-12-CU-select.csv 2020-06-23 08:54:30 EDT
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    2020-04-23 2020-04-23-CU-select.csv 2020-06-23 08:52:14 EDT
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    2020-04-26 2020-04-26-CU-select.csv 2020-06-23 08:55:15 EDT
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    2020-05-03 2020-05-03-CU-select.csv 2020-06-23 13:01:43 EDT
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    2020-05-14 2020-05-14-CU-select.csv 2020-05-26 00:15:19 EDT
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    2020-05-28 2020-05-28-CU-select.csv 2020-05-29 08:13:09 EDT
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    2020-05-31 2020-05-31-CU-select.csv 2020-06-01 16:26:23 EDT
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    2020-06-04 2020-06-04-CU-select.csv 2020-06-08 19:17:26 EDT
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    2020-06-11 2020-06-11-CU-select.csv 2020-06-12 01:42:24 EDT
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    2020-06-18 2020-06-18-CU-select.csv 2020-06-19 12:31:53 EDT
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    2020-07-02 2020-07-02-CU-select.csv 2020-07-05 08:27:31 EDT
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    2020-07-19 2020-07-19-CU-select.csv 2020-07-20 23:17:59 EDT
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    2020-08-13 2020-08-13-CU-select.csv 2020-08-18 20:44:38 EDT
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    2020-08-20 2020-08-20-CU-select.csv 2020-08-24 21:22:33 EDT
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    2020-09-03 2020-09-03-CU-select.csv 2020-09-07 21:34:26 EDT
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