Model: UT-Austin COVID-19 Consortium - UT-Mobility

    Name: Mobility
    Abbreviation: UT-Mobility
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: UT-Austin COVID-19 Consortium
    Description: This model makes predictions assuming that social distancing patterns, as measured by anonymized mobile-phone GPS traces, remain constant in the future.This model models only *first-wave deaths*.
    Contributors: Spencer Woody<spencer.woody@utexas.edu>, et al.
    License: Other License
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: For each US state, we use local data from mobile-phone GPS traces made available by [SafeGraph] to quantify the changing impact of social-distancing measures on ``flattening the curve.'' SafeGraph is a data company that aggregates anonymized location data from numerous applications in order to provide insights about physical places. To enhance privacy, SafeGraph excludes census block group information if fewer than five devices visitedan establishment in a month from a given census block group. These data are aggregated by state to create metrics of social distancing, which are used as predictors in the model. We use a Bayesian multilevel negative binomial regression model for the number of deaths for each day, and implement the model in R using the rstanarm package. See technical report at https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/media/filer_public/87/63/87635a46-b060-4b5b-a3a5-1b31ab8e0bc6/ut_covid-19_mortality_forecasting_model_latest.pdf
    Home: https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (24)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2020-01-06 (No data)
    2020-01-13 (No data)
    2020-01-20 (No data)
    2020-01-27 (No data)
    2020-02-03 (No data)
    2020-02-10 (No data)
    2020-02-17 (No data)
    2020-02-24 (No data)
    2020-03-02 (No data)
    2020-03-09 (No data)
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    2020-04-19 (No data)
    2020-04-20 2020-04-20-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-05-13 13:14:21 EDT
    2020-04-21 (No data)
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    2020-04-27 2020-04-27-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-05-13 13:13:59 EDT
    2020-04-28 (No data)
    2020-04-29 (No data)
    2020-04-30 (No data)
    2020-05-01 (No data)
    2020-05-02 (No data)
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    2020-05-04 2020-05-04-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-05-13 13:14:34 EDT
    2020-05-05 (No data)
    2020-05-06 (No data)
    2020-05-07 (No data)
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    2020-05-11 2020-05-11-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-05-13 13:13:33 EDT
    2020-05-12 (No data)
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    2020-05-14 (No data)
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    2020-05-17 (No data)
    2020-05-18 2020-05-18-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-05-18 10:55:36 EDT
    2020-05-19 (No data)
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    2020-05-23 (No data)
    2020-05-24 (No data)
    2020-05-25 2020-05-25-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-05-26 17:11:31 EDT
    2020-05-26 (No data)
    2020-05-27 (No data)
    2020-05-28 (No data)
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    2020-05-30 (No data)
    2020-05-31 (No data)
    2020-06-01 2020-06-01-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-06-01 16:39:09 EDT
    2020-06-02 (No data)
    2020-06-03 (No data)
    2020-06-04 (No data)
    2020-06-05 (No data)
    2020-06-06 (No data)
    2020-06-07 (No data)
    2020-06-08 2020-06-08-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-06-08 19:20:27 EDT
    2020-06-09 (No data)
    2020-06-10 (No data)
    2020-06-11 (No data)
    2020-06-12 (No data)
    2020-06-13 (No data)
    2020-06-14 (No data)
    2020-06-15 2020-06-15-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-06-15 16:14:35 EDT
    2020-06-16 (No data)
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    2020-06-18 (No data)
    2020-06-19 (No data)
    2020-06-20 (No data)
    2020-06-21 (No data)
    2020-06-22 2020-06-22-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-06-22 15:43:45 EDT
    2020-06-23 (No data)
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    2020-06-25 (No data)
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    2020-06-27 (No data)
    2020-06-28 (No data)
    2020-06-29 2020-06-29-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-06-29 17:38:15 EDT
    2020-06-30 (No data)
    2020-07-01 (No data)
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    2020-07-05 (No data)
    2020-07-06 2020-07-06-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-07-07 09:40:11 EDT
    2020-07-07 (No data)
    2020-07-08 (No data)
    2020-07-09 (No data)
    2020-07-10 (No data)
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    2020-07-12 (No data)
    2020-07-13 2020-07-13-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-07-13 17:08:43 EDT
    2020-07-14 (No data)
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    2020-07-16 (No data)
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    2020-07-18 (No data)
    2020-07-19 (No data)
    2020-07-20 2020-07-20-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-07-20 15:07:31 EDT
    2020-07-21 (No data)
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    2020-07-23 (No data)
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    2020-07-25 (No data)
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    2020-07-27 2020-07-27-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-07-27 21:22:34 EDT
    2020-07-28 (No data)
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    2020-07-30 (No data)
    2020-07-31 (No data)
    2020-08-01 (No data)
    2020-08-02 (No data)
    2020-08-03 2020-08-03-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-08-03 15:05:17 EDT
    2020-08-04 (No data)
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    2020-08-17 2020-08-17-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-08-18 14:43:16 EDT
    2020-08-18 (No data)
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    2020-08-24 2020-08-24-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-08-24 14:25:49 EDT
    2020-08-25 (No data)
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    2020-09-14 2020-09-14-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-09-14 20:56:48 EDT
    2020-09-15 (No data)
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    2020-09-17 (No data)
    2020-09-18 (No data)
    2020-09-19 (No data)
    2020-09-20 (No data)
    2020-09-21 2020-09-21-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-09-21 21:01:31 EDT
    2020-09-22 (No data)
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    2020-09-24 (No data)
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    2020-09-28 2020-09-28-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-09-28 14:24:43 EDT
    2020-09-29 (No data)
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    2020-10-01 (No data)
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    2020-10-05 2020-10-05-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-10-05 14:27:37 EDT
    2020-10-08 (No data)
    2020-10-11 (No data)
    2020-10-12 2020-10-12-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-10-12 21:40:10 EDT
    2020-10-15 (No data)
    2020-10-16 (No data)
    2020-10-18 (No data)
    2020-10-19 2020-10-19-UT-Mobility.csv 2020-10-19 21:15:25 EDT
    2020-10-26 (No data)
    2020-11-02 (No data)
    2020-11-09 (No data)
    2020-11-16 (No data)
    2020-11-23 (No data)
    2020-11-30 (No data)
    2020-12-07 (No data)
    2020-12-14 (No data)
    2020-12-21 (No data)
    2020-12-28 (No data)