Model: CovidAnalytics at MIT - DELPHI

    Name: DELPHI
    Abbreviation: CovidAnalytics-DELPHI
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: CovidAnalytics at MIT
    Description: This model predicts based on an SEIR model augmented with underdetection and interventions. Projections account for reopening and assume interventions would be re-enacted if cases continue to climb.
    Contributors: Michael Lingzhi Li (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) <mlli@mit.edu>, Hamza Tazi Bouardi (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Omar Skali Lami (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Thomas A. Trikalinos (Brown University), Nikolaos K. Trichakis (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Dimitris Bertsimas (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
    License: Apache license 2.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://www.covidanalytics.io/DELPHI_documentation_pdf
    Methods: This model makes predictions for future cases based on a heavily modified SEIR model. New states are added to the SEIR model to account for cases that went undetected, and an explicit death state is included. The infection rate is corrected with a nonlinear curve that represents the governmental and societal response (which is assumed to change according to the magnitude of the outbreak). Key parameters for the disease are fixed using a metanalysis conducted by the CovidAnalytics group of over 150 parameters while epidemiological parameters are fitted to hisotical death counts and detected cases.
    Home: https://www.covidanalytics.io/
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/COVIDAnalytics/DELPHI

    Forecasts (17)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
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    2020-04-22 2020-04-22-MIT_CovidAnalytics-DELPHI.csv 2020-05-13 11:20:47 EDT
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    2020-04-27 2020-04-27-CovidAnalytics-DELPHI.csv 2020-05-13 11:21:09 EDT
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    2020-04-30 2020-04-30-CovidAnalytics-DELPHI.csv 2020-05-13 11:21:36 EDT
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    2020-05-04 2020-05-04-CovidAnalytics-DELPHI.csv 2020-05-13 13:10:20 EDT
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    2020-05-18 2020-05-18-CovidAnalytics-DELPHI.csv 2020-05-19 21:34:15 EDT
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    2020-05-25 2020-05-25-CovidAnalytics-DELPHI.csv 2020-05-25 20:08:43 EDT
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    2020-06-01 2020-06-01-CovidAnalytics-DELPHI.csv 2020-06-01 16:27:10 EDT
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    2020-06-08 2020-06-08-CovidAnalytics-DELPHI.csv 2020-06-08 19:19:51 EDT
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