Model: COVID-19 Forecast Hub - COVIDhub-ensemble

    Name: ensemble
    Abbreviation: COVIDhub-ensemble
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: COVID-19 Forecast Hub
    Description: An ensemble, or model average, of submitted forecasts to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.
    Contributors: Nutcha Wattanachit, Evan L. Ray, Nicholas Reich <nick@schoolph.umass.edu>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: April 13: At state level, only two models included in first week, LANL and IHME, due to overlaps in location and reported quantiles. At national level, IHME was combined with the three CU models. April 27: Different component models at state level and national level. Please see the model information file for more details. May 4: National ensemble combined 7 models, state ensembles combined between 2 and 8 models. For details, see ensemble-metadata/state-weight-information.csv All ensembles were equally weighted among all eligible models. May 19: See ensemble-metadata/2020-05-19-model-eligibility.csv for models included/excluded at each location with reasons, and ensemble-metadata/2020-05-19-model-weights.csv for weights by location. May 26: See ensemble-metadata folder for models included/excluded in each location, and weights by location. July 28: switched to using a per-quantile median prediction across all eligible models. For cumulative deaths, we still implemented the automated checks that the 10th percentile of the 1-week ahead predictive distribution must be at least the most recent observed cumulative death, and the quantiles must be non-decreasing over time at each quantile level. We did not eliminate any models based on visual misalignment with the reference JHU data this week.
    Home: https://covid19forecasthub.org/
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub

    Forecasts (28)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
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    2020-04-13 2020-04-13-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-05-13 13:07:48 EDT
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    2020-04-27 2020-04-27-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-05-13 13:07:55 EDT
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    2020-05-04 2020-05-04-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-05-13 13:07:41 EDT
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    2020-05-11 2020-05-11-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-05-13 13:07:45 EDT
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    2020-05-18 2020-05-18-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-05-27 18:09:31 EDT
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    2020-05-25 2020-05-25-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-05-27 17:53:39 EDT
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    2020-06-01 2020-06-01-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-06-02 12:13:43 EDT
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    2020-06-08 2020-06-08-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-06-09 11:53:57 EDT
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    2020-06-15 2020-06-15-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-06-16 12:02:57 EDT
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    2020-06-22 2020-06-22-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-06-23 13:02:53 EDT
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    2020-06-29 2020-06-29-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-06-30 13:04:42 EDT
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    2020-07-06 2020-07-06-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-07-08 15:19:25 EDT
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    2020-07-13 2020-07-13-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-07-14 13:46:56 EDT
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    2020-07-20 2020-07-20-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-07-21 16:42:20 EDT
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    2020-07-27 2020-07-27-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-07-28 16:41:07 EDT
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    2020-08-03 2020-08-03-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-08-04 13:29:32 EDT
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    2020-08-10 2020-08-10-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-08-11 14:18:04 EDT
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    2020-08-31 2020-08-31-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-09-01 20:44:10 EDT
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    2020-09-07 2020-09-07-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-09-08 14:23:22 EDT
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    2020-09-14 2020-09-14-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-09-15 10:12:01 EDT
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    2020-09-21 2020-09-21-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-09-22 14:26:04 EDT
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    2020-09-28 2020-09-28-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-09-29 11:09:58 EDT
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    2020-10-12 2020-10-12-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-10-13 09:41:38 EDT
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    2020-10-19 2020-10-19-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-10-20 15:15:59 EDT
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    2020-10-26 2020-10-26-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv 2020-10-27 14:40:23 EDT
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