Model: Los Alamos National Labs - LANL-GrowthRate

    Name: GrowthRate
    Abbreviation: LANL-GrowthRate
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Los Alamos National Labs
    Description: This model makes predictions about the future, unconditional on particular intervention strategies. Statistical dynamical growth model accounting for population susceptibility.
    Contributors: Dave Osthus <dosthus@lanl.gov>, Sara Del Valle, Carrie Manore, Brian Weaver, Lauren Castro, Courtney Shelley, Manhong (Mandy) Smith, Julie Spencer, Geoffrey Fairchild, Travis Pitts, Dax Gerts, Lori Dauelsberg, Ashlynn Daughton, Morgan Gorris, Beth Hornbein, Daniel Israel, Nidhi Parikh, Deborah Shutt, Amanda Ziemann
    License: Other License
    Notes: primary
    Citation: Missing
    Methods: This model makes predictions about the future, unconditional on particular intervention strategies. The model consists of two processes. The first process is a statistical model of how the number of COVID-19 infections changes over time. The second process maps the number of infections to the reported data. We model the growth of new cases as the product of a dynamic growth parameter and the underlying numbers of susceptible and infected cases in the population at the previous time step, scaled by the size of the state's starting susceptible population. The growth parameter can be thought of as the transmissibility of the virus in that state on that date. To model new deaths in the population, we assume that a fraction of the newly generated cases will die and learn that fraction from observations. We can also anticipate when the outbreak is likely to peak, i.e. when the daily number of new confirmed cases reaches its maximum."
    Home: https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (62)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2020-01-06 (No data)
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    2020-04-06 2020-04-06-LANL-GrowthRate.csv 2020-05-15 20:51:12 EDT
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    2020-09-07 2020-09-07-LANL-GrowthRate.csv 2020-09-07 14:24:06 EDT
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    2020-10-05 2020-10-05-LANL-GrowthRate.csv 2020-10-06 09:32:51 EDT
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