Model: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - IHME-CurveFit

    Name: CurveFit
    Abbreviation: IHME-CurveFit
    Owner: covid19hub
    Team name: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
    Description: This model makes predictions about the future that are dependent on the assumption that current interventions continue. Non-linear mixed efects curve-fitting.
    Contributors: Christopher Murry <cjlm@u.washington.edu>, et al, IHME-CurveFit Team <covid19@healthdata.org>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1
    Methods: This model makes predictions about the future that are dependent on the assumption that current interventions continue. The modeling approach in this study is divided into four components: (i) identification and processing of COVID-19 data; (ii) statistical model estimation for population death rates as a function of time since the death rate exceeds a threshold in a location; (iii) predicting time to exceed a given population death threshold in states early in the pandemic; and (iv) modeling health service utilization as a function of deaths." CurveFit package available at: https://github.com/ihmeuw-msca/CurveFit
    Home: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
    Auxiliary data: Missing

    Forecasts (95)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-05 (No data)
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    2020-08-06 2020-08-06-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-08-07 00:39:18 UTC 2020-08-07 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-08-27 2020-08-27-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-08-28 12:28:53 UTC 2020-08-28 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-08-30 (No data)
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    2020-09-03 2020-09-03-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-09-05 01:18:28 UTC 2020-09-05 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-03-30 2020-03-30-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 18:33:48 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-04-06 (No data)
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    2020-04-20 2020-04-20-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 18:55:05 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-04-27 2020-04-27-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 18:59:36 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-05-04 2020-05-04-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 19:15:53 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-18 2020-05-18-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-19 21:19:00 UTC 2020-05-19 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-06-08 2020-06-08-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-06-08 23:53:49 UTC 2020-06-08 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-06-15 2020-06-15-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-06-15 21:56:27 UTC 2020-06-15 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-06-22 2020-06-22-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-06-22 22:06:08 UTC 2020-06-22 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-06-29 2020-06-29-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-06-29 23:16:01 UTC 2020-06-29 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-07-06 2020-07-06-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-07-07 13:24:36 UTC 2020-07-07 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-08-24 2020-08-24-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-08-25 01:06:39 UTC 2020-08-25 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-09-21 2020-09-21-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-09-22 01:02:43 UTC 2020-09-22 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-09-28 2020-09-28-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-09-29 01:10:51 UTC 2020-09-29 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-10-26 2020-10-26-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-10-27 01:21:01 UTC 2020-10-27 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-04-12 2020-04-12-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 18:50:19 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-04-16 2020-04-16-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 18:52:13 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-04-28 2020-04-28-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 19:01:01 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-04-01 2020-04-01-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 18:40:05 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-04-07 2020-04-07-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 18:45:38 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-04-09 2020-04-09-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 18:47:19 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-05-08 2020-05-08-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-13 19:08:03 UTC 2020-05-13 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-05-12 2020-05-12-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-01-20 22:32:12 UTC 2020-05-16 12:00:00 UTC 1 of 3
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    2020-05-12 2020-05-12-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-05-20 01:31:02 UTC 2020-05-20 12:00:00 UTC 3 of 3
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    2020-05-29 2020-05-29-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-06-01 19:56:19 UTC 2020-06-01 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-06-05 2020-06-05-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-06-08 22:49:08 UTC 2020-06-08 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-06-10 2020-06-10-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-06-11 03:03:10 UTC 2020-06-11 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-06-24 2020-06-24-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-06-26 18:00:21 UTC 2020-06-26 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-07-17 2020-07-17-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-07-20 11:17:46 UTC 2020-07-20 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-07-23 2020-07-23-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-07-24 11:14:37 UTC 2020-07-24 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-07-30 2020-07-30-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-08-01 11:20:58 UTC 2020-08-01 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-07-30 2021-07-30-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-08-01 16:35:21 UTC 2021-08-01 16:35:21 UTC
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    2021-08-09 2021-08-09-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-08-09 18:32:10 UTC 2021-08-09 18:32:10 UTC
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    2021-08-27 2021-08-27-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-08-28 00:27:09 UTC 2021-08-28 00:27:09 UTC
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    2021-09-10 2021-09-10-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-09-11 00:26:13 UTC 2021-09-11 00:26:13 UTC
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    2021-10-01 2021-10-01-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-10-01 18:26:05 UTC 2021-10-01 18:26:05 UTC
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    2021-11-04 2021-11-04-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-11-05 00:29:06 UTC 2021-11-05 00:29:06 UTC
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    2021-12-22 2021-12-22-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-12-23 00:31:30 UTC 2021-12-23 00:31:30 UTC
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    2022-01-14 2022-01-14-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-01-15 03:10:40 UTC 2022-01-15 03:10:40 UTC
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    2022-03-22 2022-03-22-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-03-23 00:38:18 UTC 2022-03-23 00:38:18 UTC
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    2021-07-02 2021-07-02-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-07-05 00:41:08 UTC 2021-07-05 00:41:08 UTC
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    2021-07-16 2021-07-16-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-07-17 03:06:39 UTC 2021-07-17 03:06:39 UTC
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    2020-12-10 2020-12-10-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-12-11 12:31:21 UTC 2020-12-11 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-12-18 2020-12-18-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-12-19 06:24:33 UTC 2020-12-19 12:00:00 UTC
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    2020-12-23 2020-12-23-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2020-12-28 18:45:40 UTC 2020-12-28 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-15 2021-01-15-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-01-18 06:59:03 UTC 2021-01-18 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-22 2021-01-22-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-01-26 00:58:12 UTC 2021-01-25 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-01-29 2021-01-29-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-02-01 12:24:29 UTC 2021-02-01 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-05 2021-02-05-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-02-09 00:54:36 UTC 2021-02-08 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-12 2021-02-12-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-02-15 00:33:17 UTC 2021-02-14 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-22 2021-02-22-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-02-23 01:16:49 UTC 2021-02-22 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-25 2021-02-25-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-02-26 00:43:05 UTC 2021-02-25 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-15 2021-03-15-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-03-16 02:35:46 UTC 2021-03-15 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-18 2021-03-18-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-03-22 06:47:46 UTC 2021-03-22 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-25 2021-03-25-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-03-26 00:35:39 UTC 2021-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-01 2021-04-01-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-04-02 00:40:29 UTC 2021-04-01 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-16 2021-04-16-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-04-17 00:25:01 UTC 2021-04-16 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-04-23 2021-04-23-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-04-24 00:26:18 UTC 2021-04-23 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-07-23 2021-07-23-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-07-26 19:08:55 UTC 2021-07-26 19:08:55 UTC
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    2021-05-07 2021-05-07-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-05-08 00:35:57 UTC 2021-05-07 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-17 2021-05-17-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-05-18 01:19:29 UTC 2021-05-17 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-24 2021-05-24-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-05-24 18:55:23 UTC 2021-05-24 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-05-28 2021-05-28-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-05-29 01:11:44 UTC 2021-05-29 01:11:44 UTC
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    2021-06-07 2021-06-07-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-06-07 20:26:21 UTC 2021-06-07 20:26:21 UTC
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    2021-06-11 2021-06-11-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-06-12 00:40:58 UTC 2021-06-12 00:40:58 UTC
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    2021-06-18 2021-06-18-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-06-19 00:41:19 UTC 2021-06-19 00:41:19 UTC
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    2021-06-25 2021-06-25-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2021-06-25 18:28:15 UTC 2021-06-25 18:28:15 UTC
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    2022-01-24 2022-01-24-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-01-25 00:43:17 UTC 2022-01-25 00:43:17 UTC
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    2022-04-11 2022-04-11-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-04-11 18:46:56 UTC 2022-04-11 18:46:56 UTC
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    2022-05-06 2022-05-06-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-05-07 00:31:05 UTC 2022-05-07 00:31:05 UTC
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    2022-06-10 2022-06-10-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-06-11 00:32:37 UTC 2022-06-11 00:32:37 UTC
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    2022-10-24 2022-10-24-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-10-25 00:42:14 UTC 2022-10-25 00:42:14 UTC
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    2022-11-18 2022-11-18-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-11-19 03:31:27 UTC 2022-11-19 03:31:27 UTC
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    2022-12-16 2022-12-16-IHME-CurveFit.csv 2022-12-17 00:37:18 UTC 2022-12-17 00:37:18 UTC
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