| Name: | Norrsken Piecewise Linear Bayesian Model |
|---|---|
| Abbreviation: | ECDC-norrsken_green |
| Owner: | epiforecasts |
| Team name: | European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control |
| Description: | A Bayesian piece-wise log-linear model fit. |
| Contributors: | [{'name': 'Rene Niehus', 'affiliation': 'European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control', 'email': 'rene.niehus@ecdc.europa.eu'}] |
| License: | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 |
| Notes: | primary |
| Citation: | NA |
| Methods: | Model consists of 1) scaling of the data (convert to log-scale), 2) assigning data points into groups such that neighbouring data points belong to the same group, and simultaneously in Stan 3) fitting piece-wise intercept-slope models in each group, 4) regularizing the difference between neighbouring slopes to be close to 0, 5) generating a future slope based on the last slope plus fitted noise. |
| Home: | https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en |
| Auxiliary data: | NA |
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