Model: CEPH Lab at Indiana University - CEPH-Rtrend_fluH

    Name: Rtrend_fluH
    Abbreviation: CEPH-Rtrend_fluH
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: CEPH Lab at Indiana University
    Description: Renewal equation based on Rt estimation from hospitalization data.
    Contributors: Marco Ajelli (majelli@iu.edu), Paulo C. Ventura (pventura@iu.edu), Maria Litvinova (malitv@iu.edu), Allisandra G. Kummer (alkummer@iu.edu), Alessandro Vespignani (a.vespignani@northeastern.edu)
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation:
    Methods: Model forecasts are obtained by using a renewal equation based on the estimated net reproduction number Rt. To estimate Rt, we inferred the daily number of hospitalization by using a spline interpolation of the weekly trend in the hospitalization data. We then used MCMC Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the posterior distribution of Rt based on the interpolated data, considering an informed prior on Rt based on influenza literature. Finally, Rt used in the renewal equation is based on a the posterior distribution and trend of the estimated Rt in the three most recent weeks of influenza data.
    Home: https://publichealth.indiana.edu/research/faculty-directory/profile.html?user=majelli
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (28)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2022-01-24 (No data)
    2022-10-03 (No data)
    2023-06-19 (No data)
    2023-06-12 (No data)
    2023-06-05 (No data)
    2022-06-20 (No data)
    2022-06-13 (No data)
    2022-06-06 (No data)
    2023-05-29 (No data)
    2023-05-22 (No data)
    2023-05-15 forecast-31803974a4a4.json 2023-05-18 11:11:34 UTC 2023-05-18 11:11:34 UTC
    2023-05-08 forecast-311451ccdd02.json 2023-05-11 11:14:07 UTC 2023-05-11 11:14:07 UTC
    2023-05-01 forecast-315547ff1692.json 2023-05-04 11:13:45 UTC 2023-05-04 11:13:45 UTC
    2023-04-24 forecast-30cf2645992f.json 2023-04-28 16:06:09 UTC 2023-04-28 16:06:09 UTC
    2023-04-17 forecast-2d7d33a4e087.json 2023-04-20 11:12:54 UTC 2023-04-20 11:12:54 UTC
    2023-04-10 forecast-2d822485e857.json 2023-04-13 11:11:46 UTC 2023-04-13 11:11:46 UTC
    2023-04-03 forecast-2d9d3ea2320b.json 2023-04-06 11:12:43 UTC 2023-04-06 11:12:43 UTC
    2023-03-27 forecast-2df750e1913d.json 2023-03-30 11:14:43 UTC 2023-03-30 11:14:43 UTC
    2023-03-20 forecast-2e292e8d7e8a.json 2023-03-23 11:12:57 UTC 2023-03-23 11:12:57 UTC
    2023-03-13 forecast-2e0929fda441.json 2023-03-16 11:11:45 UTC 2023-03-16 11:11:45 UTC
    2023-03-06 forecast-2e38180e39ac.json 2023-03-09 11:15:44 UTC 2023-03-09 11:15:44 UTC
    2023-02-27 forecast-2de715899bd1.json 2023-03-02 11:12:00 UTC 2023-03-02 11:12:00 UTC
    2023-02-20 forecast-2e253ae89c95.json 2023-02-23 00:20:50 UTC 2023-02-23 00:20:50 UTC
    2023-02-13 forecast-545973a2aacc.json 2023-02-16 11:17:15 UTC 2023-02-16 11:17:15 UTC
    2023-02-06 forecast-553d2e28ccc1.json 2023-02-09 11:17:59 UTC 2023-02-09 11:17:59 UTC
    2023-01-30 forecast-54994cd58d1e.json 2023-02-02 20:06:30 UTC 2023-02-02 20:06:30 UTC
    2023-01-23 forecast-551a14b478c2.json 2023-01-25 23:20:29 UTC 2023-01-25 23:20:29 UTC
    2023-01-16 forecast-550f71ffa2.json 2023-01-24 14:44:13 UTC 2023-01-24 14:44:13 UTC
    2023-01-09 forecast-5c2c2bde3be.json 2023-01-13 19:35:53 UTC 2023-01-13 19:35:53 UTC
    2023-01-02 forecast661c51571e8d.json 2023-01-05 19:58:36 UTC 2023-01-05 19:58:36 UTC
    2022-12-26 forecast3140f4a238e.json 2023-01-03 21:40:06 UTC 2023-01-03 21:40:06 UTC
    2022-12-19 forecast3140677f1e19.json 2023-01-03 21:40:04 UTC 2023-01-03 21:40:04 UTC
    2022-12-12 forecast314048fd366b.json 2023-01-03 21:40:03 UTC 2023-01-03 21:40:03 UTC
    2022-12-05 forecast31401e98505a.json 2023-01-03 21:40:01 UTC 2023-01-03 21:40:01 UTC
    2022-11-28 forecast314011e41d18.json 2023-01-03 21:40:00 UTC 2023-01-03 21:40:00 UTC
    2022-11-21 forecast31401904606a.json 2023-01-03 21:39:59 UTC 2023-01-03 21:39:59 UTC
    2022-11-14 forecast3140e1c2eb1.json 2023-01-03 21:39:58 UTC 2023-01-03 21:39:58 UTC
    2022-11-07 forecast31401fca7e95.json 2023-01-03 21:39:56 UTC 2023-01-03 21:39:56 UTC
    2022-10-31 (No data)
    2022-10-24 (No data)
    2022-10-17 (No data)
    2022-10-10 (No data)
    2022-05-30 (No data)
    2022-05-23 (No data)
    2022-05-16 (No data)
    2022-05-09 (No data)
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    2022-04-25 (No data)
    2022-04-18 (No data)
    2022-04-11 (No data)
    2022-04-04 (No data)
    2022-03-28 (No data)
    2022-03-21 (No data)
    2022-03-14 (No data)
    2022-03-07 (No data)
    2022-02-28 (No data)
    2022-02-21 (No data)
    2022-02-14 (No data)
    2022-02-07 (No data)
    2022-01-31 (No data)
    2022-01-17 (No data)
    2022-01-10 (No data)
    2022-01-03 (No data)
    2021-12-27 (No data)
    2021-12-20 (No data)
    2021-12-13 (No data)