Model: Flusight - Flusight-baseline

    Name: baseline
    Abbreviation: Flusight-baseline
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: Flusight
    Description: This model is a baseline predictive model.
    Contributors: Evan L. Ray <elray@umass.edu>, Nutcha Wattanachit, Ryan Tibshirani
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation:
    Methods: The median prediction at all future horizons is the most recent observed weekly incidence. To get a distribution around the median, we look at how much incidence has changed from week to week in the past, and we allow for the possibility that similar changes will occur again in the future. In more technical detail, forecasts of incidence are generated through the following procedure: 1) Calculate first differences of incidence; 2) Collect all first differences and their negatives; 3) Sample first differences in incidence and add to the most recent observed incidence; 4) Enforce that the mean of the predictive distribution for incidence is equal to the most recent observed incidence; 5) truncate the predictive distribution for incidence at 0.
    Home: https://github.com/cdcepi/Flusight-baseline
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (56)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2022-01-24 forecast661c549c334.json 2023-01-05 13:41:24 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:24 UTC
    2022-10-03 forecast661c2083524b.json 2023-01-05 15:38:49 UTC 2023-01-05 15:38:49 UTC
    2023-06-19 (No data)
    2023-06-12 (No data)
    2023-06-05 (No data)
    2022-06-20 forecast661c5ecf56e6.json 2023-01-05 13:42:02 UTC 2023-01-05 13:42:02 UTC
    2022-06-13 forecast661c40446a28.json 2023-01-05 13:42:00 UTC 2023-01-05 13:42:00 UTC
    2022-06-06 forecast661c3c40184a.json 2023-01-05 13:41:58 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:58 UTC
    2023-05-29 (No data)
    2023-05-22 (No data)
    2023-05-15 forecast-31805ce649ba.json 2023-05-18 11:11:40 UTC 2023-05-18 11:11:40 UTC
    2023-05-08 forecast-317f1cfd4e5d.json 2023-05-10 11:14:54 UTC 2023-05-10 11:14:54 UTC
    2023-05-01 forecast-30eba2cec48.json 2023-05-03 11:10:06 UTC 2023-05-03 11:10:06 UTC
    2023-04-24 forecast-31222d20ed74.json 2023-04-26 11:09:56 UTC 2023-04-26 11:09:56 UTC
    2023-04-17 forecast-2d66311851e0.json 2023-04-19 11:12:47 UTC 2023-04-19 11:12:47 UTC
    2023-04-10 forecast-2d953af94a39.json 2023-04-12 11:12:05 UTC 2023-04-12 11:12:05 UTC
    2023-04-03 forecast-2d86522e4b6c.json 2023-04-05 11:10:31 UTC 2023-04-05 11:10:31 UTC
    2023-03-27 forecast-2e4d3284adbe.json 2023-03-29 11:10:48 UTC 2023-03-29 11:10:48 UTC
    2023-03-20 forecast-2e0d22437e88.json 2023-03-22 11:10:23 UTC 2023-03-22 11:10:23 UTC
    2023-03-13 forecast-2e1e78d0507f.json 2023-03-15 11:10:43 UTC 2023-03-15 11:10:43 UTC
    2023-03-06 forecast-2e3b596c92e.json 2023-03-08 11:10:49 UTC 2023-03-08 11:10:49 UTC
    2023-02-27 forecast-2e3028fa01d4.json 2023-03-01 11:11:07 UTC 2023-03-01 11:11:07 UTC
    2023-02-20 forecast-2e25511dd62.json 2023-02-23 00:21:04 UTC 2023-02-23 00:21:04 UTC
    2023-02-13 forecast-54e171a49eb.json 2023-02-15 11:18:01 UTC 2023-02-15 11:18:01 UTC
    2023-02-06 forecast-553a4fcac4f4.json 2023-02-08 11:16:24 UTC 2023-02-08 11:16:24 UTC
    2023-01-30 forecast-557f198b58eb.json 2023-02-01 11:21:09 UTC 2023-02-01 11:21:09 UTC
    2023-01-23 forecast-551a8d2706f.json 2023-01-25 23:20:37 UTC 2023-01-25 23:20:37 UTC
    2023-01-16 forecast-550f28d69b09.json 2023-01-24 14:44:21 UTC 2023-01-24 14:44:21 UTC
    2023-01-09 forecast-54c421c477a0.json 2023-02-06 17:04:12 UTC 2023-02-06 17:04:12 UTC
    2023-01-02 forecast64042f043d9c.json 2023-01-05 19:58:21 UTC 2023-01-05 19:58:21 UTC
    2022-12-26 forecast6a986ac34c65.json 2022-12-29 21:12:09 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:09 UTC
    2022-12-19 forecast6a982c711d7c.json 2022-12-29 21:12:08 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:08 UTC
    2022-12-12 forecast6a986ebc556e.json 2022-12-29 21:12:07 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:07 UTC
    2022-12-05 forecast6a98ab9327.json 2022-12-29 21:12:05 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:05 UTC
    2022-11-28 forecast6a98481f3ef6.json 2022-12-29 21:12:04 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:04 UTC
    2022-11-21 forecast6a98633067c2.json 2022-12-29 21:12:02 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:02 UTC
    2022-11-14 forecast6a9871876743.json 2022-12-29 21:12:01 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:01 UTC
    2022-11-07 forecast6a981b23762d.json 2022-12-29 21:12:00 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:00 UTC
    2022-10-31 forecast6a981f8f5847.json 2022-12-29 21:11:58 UTC 2022-12-29 21:11:58 UTC
    2022-10-24 forecast6a981efc5dea.json 2022-12-29 21:11:56 UTC 2022-12-29 21:11:56 UTC
    2022-10-17 forecast6a982d9d735b.json 2022-12-29 21:11:54 UTC 2022-12-29 21:11:54 UTC
    2022-10-10 (No data)
    2022-05-30 forecast661c4c5f44cb.json 2023-01-05 13:41:56 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:56 UTC
    2022-05-23 forecast661ca9155fc.json 2023-01-05 13:41:54 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:54 UTC
    2022-05-16 forecast661c2ed94f98.json 2023-01-05 13:41:52 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:52 UTC
    2022-05-09 forecast661c1a493a46.json 2023-01-05 13:41:50 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:50 UTC
    2022-05-02 forecast661c49a859e2.json 2023-01-05 13:41:48 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:48 UTC
    2022-04-25 forecast661c24882b9c.json 2023-01-05 13:41:46 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:46 UTC
    2022-04-18 forecast661c75b63256.json 2023-01-05 13:41:45 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:45 UTC
    2022-04-11 forecast661c4eaca.json 2023-01-05 13:41:43 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:43 UTC
    2022-04-04 forecast661c28cf6a55.json 2023-01-05 13:41:41 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:41 UTC
    2022-03-28 forecast661c1c0c5a7e.json 2023-01-05 13:41:40 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:40 UTC
    2022-03-21 forecast661c4dca893.json 2023-01-05 13:41:38 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:38 UTC
    2022-03-14 forecast661c276a2bf8.json 2023-01-05 13:41:36 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:36 UTC
    2022-03-07 forecast661c5af526f0.json 2023-01-05 13:41:35 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:35 UTC
    2022-02-28 forecast661c19596d0e.json 2023-01-05 13:41:33 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:33 UTC
    2022-02-21 forecast661c72c43795.json 2023-01-05 13:41:31 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:31 UTC
    2022-02-14 forecast661c7e5b7365.json 2023-01-05 13:41:29 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:29 UTC
    2022-02-07 forecast661c1abc6d51.json 2023-01-05 13:41:27 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:27 UTC
    2022-01-31 forecast661c3b1160ed.json 2023-01-05 13:41:26 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:26 UTC
    2022-01-17 forecast661c2f043d9c.json 2023-01-05 13:41:22 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:22 UTC
    2022-01-10 forecast661c25cc5f6b.json 2023-01-05 13:41:20 UTC 2023-01-05 13:41:20 UTC
    2022-01-03 (No data)
    2021-12-27 (No data)
    2021-12-20 (No data)
    2021-12-13 (No data)