Model: Columbia University - CU-ensemble

    Name: Ensemble
    Abbreviation: CU-ensemble
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: Columbia University
    Description: An inverse-WIS weighted ensemble of 3 component models - an SEIRS compartmental model with EAKF, an ARIMA model, and a baseline model of random walk with drift.
    Contributors: Sasi Kandula <sk3542@cumc.columbia.edu>, Sen Pei <sp3449@cumc.columbia.edu>, Teresa Yamana <tky2104@cumc.columbia.edu>, Jeffrey Shaman <jls106@cumc.columbia.edu>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation:
    Methods: The dynamical model simulates influenza transmission in each state and the US using a humidity-driven SEIRS dynamics. Model variables and parameters are sequentially updated each week using the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter and new observations. Forecasts are generated by integrating the optimized model into the future. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and baseline models use implementations available in the fable R package (ARIMA and RW, respectively). To build ensemble, the quantile distributions of the component models are weighted by the sum of inverse-WIS scores, over last 3 weeks. The 3-week window is target-specific and only includes weeks for which WIS scores could be evaluated (i.e. weights for 4-wk target are calculated with a window further back in time than for 1-wk target). Weights are location-specific and recomputed at each forecast week.
    Home: https://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/jls106/
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (50)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2022-01-24 forecast661c3ede6b41.json 2023-01-05 15:38:54 UTC 2023-01-05 15:38:54 UTC
    2022-10-03 (No data)
    2023-06-19 (No data)
    2023-06-12 (No data)
    2023-06-05 (No data)
    2022-06-20 forecast661c76a27141.json 2023-01-05 15:39:19 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:19 UTC
    2022-06-13 forecast661c2f853d16.json 2023-01-05 15:39:18 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:18 UTC
    2022-06-06 forecast661c13da3d5f.json 2023-01-05 15:39:17 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:17 UTC
    2023-05-29 (No data)
    2023-05-22 (No data)
    2023-05-15 forecast-318023aa06db.json 2023-05-18 11:11:41 UTC 2023-05-18 11:11:41 UTC
    2023-05-08 (No data)
    2023-05-01 forecast-31553fd6a423.json 2023-05-04 11:14:01 UTC 2023-05-04 11:14:01 UTC
    2023-04-24 forecast-30cf169de7a0.json 2023-04-28 16:06:18 UTC 2023-04-28 16:06:18 UTC
    2023-04-17 forecast-2d7d45fc3032.json 2023-04-20 11:13:04 UTC 2023-04-20 11:13:04 UTC
    2023-04-10 forecast-2d825864e0d9.json 2023-04-13 11:11:56 UTC 2023-04-13 11:11:56 UTC
    2023-04-03 (No data)
    2023-03-27 (No data)
    2023-03-20 forecast-2e291a55fc34.json 2023-03-23 11:13:07 UTC 2023-03-23 11:13:07 UTC
    2023-03-13 forecast-2e092544ae35.json 2023-03-16 11:11:54 UTC 2023-03-16 11:11:54 UTC
    2023-03-06 forecast-2e38295b4fe9.json 2023-03-09 11:16:02 UTC 2023-03-09 11:16:02 UTC
    2023-02-27 forecast-2de72f61024b.json 2023-03-02 11:12:10 UTC 2023-03-02 11:12:10 UTC
    2023-02-20 forecast-2e25c70c539.json 2023-02-23 00:21:07 UTC 2023-02-23 00:21:07 UTC
    2023-02-13 forecast-5459ea0116e.json 2023-02-16 11:17:24 UTC 2023-02-16 11:17:24 UTC
    2023-02-06 forecast-553d2994085a.json 2023-02-09 11:18:08 UTC 2023-02-09 11:18:08 UTC
    2023-01-30 forecast-549922c12fb7.json 2023-02-02 20:06:39 UTC 2023-02-02 20:06:39 UTC
    2023-01-23 (No data)
    2023-01-16 forecast-550f2adbcc7c.json 2023-01-24 14:44:22 UTC 2023-01-24 14:44:22 UTC
    2023-01-09 forecast-5c2c40d847d5.json 2023-01-13 19:35:59 UTC 2023-01-13 19:35:59 UTC
    2023-01-02 forecast6404549c334.json 2023-01-05 19:58:26 UTC 2023-01-05 19:58:26 UTC
    2022-12-26 (No data)
    2022-12-19 forecast41742c711d7c.json 2022-12-29 21:12:08 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:08 UTC
    2022-12-12 forecast41746ebc556e.json 2022-12-29 21:12:06 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:06 UTC
    2022-12-05 forecast4174ab9327.json 2022-12-29 21:12:05 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:05 UTC
    2022-11-28 forecast4174481f3ef6.json 2022-12-29 21:12:03 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:03 UTC
    2022-11-21 forecast4174633067c2.json 2022-12-29 21:12:02 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:02 UTC
    2022-11-14 forecast417471876743.json 2022-12-29 21:12:01 UTC 2022-12-29 21:12:01 UTC
    2022-11-07 forecast41741b23762d.json 2022-12-29 21:11:59 UTC 2022-12-29 21:11:59 UTC
    2022-10-31 forecast41741f8f5847.json 2022-12-29 21:11:57 UTC 2022-12-29 21:11:57 UTC
    2022-10-24 forecast41741efc5dea.json 2022-12-29 21:11:55 UTC 2022-12-29 21:11:55 UTC
    2022-10-17 forecast41742d9d735b.json 2022-12-29 21:11:53 UTC 2022-12-29 21:11:53 UTC
    2022-10-10 (No data)
    2022-05-30 forecast661c2cf216fc.json 2023-01-05 15:39:16 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:16 UTC
    2022-05-23 forecast661c3cbc4736.json 2023-01-05 15:39:15 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:15 UTC
    2022-05-16 forecast661c4b0abcd.json 2023-01-05 15:39:13 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:13 UTC
    2022-05-09 forecast661c9603f8e.json 2023-01-05 15:39:12 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:12 UTC
    2022-05-02 forecast661c514434b2.json 2023-01-05 15:39:11 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:11 UTC
    2022-04-25 forecast661c2f4831b6.json 2023-01-05 15:39:10 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:10 UTC
    2022-04-18 forecast661c3941466f.json 2023-01-05 15:39:09 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:09 UTC
    2022-04-11 forecast661c686e681.json 2023-01-05 15:39:07 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:07 UTC
    2022-04-04 forecast661c68762384.json 2023-01-05 15:39:06 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:06 UTC
    2022-03-28 forecast661c528c3480.json 2023-01-05 15:39:05 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:05 UTC
    2022-03-21 forecast661c3017183.json 2023-01-05 15:39:04 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:04 UTC
    2022-03-14 forecast661c72ac3980.json 2023-01-05 15:39:03 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:03 UTC
    2022-03-07 forecast661c5f455db3.json 2023-01-05 15:39:01 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:01 UTC
    2022-02-28 forecast661c48f23945.json 2023-01-05 15:39:00 UTC 2023-01-05 15:39:00 UTC
    2022-02-21 forecast661c737a3ce4.json 2023-01-05 15:38:59 UTC 2023-01-05 15:38:59 UTC
    2022-02-14 forecast661c20a75d86.json 2023-01-05 15:38:58 UTC 2023-01-05 15:38:58 UTC
    2022-02-07 forecast661c33337293.json 2023-01-05 15:38:57 UTC 2023-01-05 15:38:57 UTC
    2022-01-31 forecast661c889532b.json 2023-01-05 15:38:55 UTC 2023-01-05 15:38:55 UTC
    2022-01-17 forecast661c1f50c4.json 2023-01-05 15:38:53 UTC 2023-01-05 15:38:53 UTC
    2022-01-10 forecast661c6405360f.json 2023-01-05 15:38:52 UTC 2023-01-05 15:38:52 UTC
    2022-01-03 (No data)
    2021-12-27 (No data)
    2021-12-20 (No data)
    2021-12-13 (No data)