Model: California Department of Public Health (CADPH) - CADPH-FluCAT_Ensemble

    Name: FluCAT
    Abbreviation: CADPH-FluCAT_Ensemble
    Owner: lshandross
    Team name: California Department of Public Health (CADPH)
    Description: This model is an ensemble of several time series forecasting and predictive models targeting influenza hospital admits based on historical clinical lab and public health lab flu surveillance data.
    Contributors: White, L.A. (CADPH) <lauren.white@cdph.ca.gov>, Murray, E. (CADPH) <erin.murray@cdph.ca.gov>, Monica Sun (CADPH) <monica.sun@cdph.ca.gov>, León, T.M. (CADPH) <tomas.leon@cdph.ca.gov>
    License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Notes: primary
    Citation: https://calcat.covid19.ca.gov/cacovidmodels/
    Methods: Individual forecasts consist of combinations of two time-series forecast approaches, two model types, and two training/validation data sets. The two time series approaches that are used to generate four-week projections for each of the Clinical Lab, Public Health Lab, and influenza-like illness (ILI) data streams include: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), which uses a weighted linear sum of recent past observations or lags, and exponential smoothing (ETS), which uses weighted averages of past observations, with the weights decaying exponentially as the observations get older. Next, predictive, autoregressive models are generated where the future flu hospital admits depend on current and past values of flu surveillance data and their interactions. The two model types used are: linear regression (LM) and random forest (RF). The resulting ensemble model is the median value of all eight individual forecasts.
    Home: https://calcat.covid19.ca.gov/cacovidmodels/
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (31)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2022-01-24 (No data)
    2022-10-03 (No data)
    2023-06-19 (No data)
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    2023-05-15 forecast-31806f8c32ae.json 2023-05-18 11:11:43 UTC 2023-05-18 11:11:43 UTC
    2023-05-08 forecast-311420be81a0.json 2023-05-11 11:14:20 UTC 2023-05-11 11:14:20 UTC
    2023-05-01 forecast-31556bf8ba.json 2023-05-04 11:14:04 UTC 2023-05-04 11:14:04 UTC
    2023-04-24 forecast-30cf3e62b226.json 2023-04-28 16:06:20 UTC 2023-04-28 16:06:20 UTC
    2023-04-17 forecast-2d7d5c2a258b.json 2023-04-20 11:13:05 UTC 2023-04-20 11:13:05 UTC
    2023-04-10 forecast-2d823d6db130.json 2023-04-13 11:11:58 UTC 2023-04-13 11:11:58 UTC
    2023-04-03 forecast-2d9d77b5180f.json 2023-04-06 11:12:52 UTC 2023-04-06 11:12:52 UTC
    2023-03-27 forecast-2df73c8ae11.json 2023-03-30 11:14:58 UTC 2023-03-30 11:14:58 UTC
    2023-03-20 forecast-2e29f8043b1.json 2023-03-23 11:13:09 UTC 2023-03-23 11:13:09 UTC
    2023-03-13 forecast-2e09345b61bc.json 2023-03-16 11:11:57 UTC 2023-03-16 11:11:57 UTC
    2023-03-06 forecast-2e38585f4f30.json 2023-03-09 11:16:05 UTC 2023-03-09 11:16:05 UTC
    2023-02-27 forecast-2de760a32dc1.json 2023-03-02 11:12:14 UTC 2023-03-02 11:12:14 UTC
    2023-02-20 forecast-2e257b9f8d57.json 2023-02-23 00:21:10 UTC 2023-02-23 00:21:10 UTC
    2023-02-13 forecast-54594ad208fe.json 2023-02-16 11:17:27 UTC 2023-02-16 11:17:27 UTC
    2023-02-06 forecast-553d17a0cc50.json 2023-02-09 11:18:11 UTC 2023-02-09 11:18:11 UTC
    2023-01-30 forecast-54993df07830.json 2023-02-02 20:06:42 UTC 2023-02-02 20:06:42 UTC
    2023-01-23 forecast-551a57ae48e2.json 2023-01-25 23:20:38 UTC 2023-01-25 23:20:38 UTC
    2023-01-16 forecast-550f79577875.json 2023-01-24 14:44:24 UTC 2023-01-24 14:44:24 UTC
    2023-01-09 forecast-5c2c736836f.json 2023-01-13 19:36:00 UTC 2023-01-13 19:36:00 UTC
    2023-01-02 forecast64543ae01db6.json 2023-01-06 17:54:02 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:02 UTC
    2022-12-26 forecast6454169752e4.json 2023-01-06 17:54:02 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:02 UTC
    2022-12-19 forecast64543d9a4ae8.json 2023-01-06 17:54:02 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:02 UTC
    2022-12-12 forecast64542d214026.json 2023-01-06 17:54:02 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:02 UTC
    2022-12-05 forecast645413022594.json 2023-01-06 17:54:01 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:01 UTC
    2022-11-28 forecast645423b81535.json 2023-01-06 17:54:01 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:01 UTC
    2022-11-21 forecast6454556e6399.json 2023-01-06 17:54:01 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:01 UTC
    2022-11-14 forecast64545aa22f75.json 2023-01-06 17:54:01 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:01 UTC
    2022-11-07 forecast64545f7861bd.json 2023-01-06 17:54:00 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:00 UTC
    2022-10-31 forecast64542d715b9.json 2023-01-06 17:54:00 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:00 UTC
    2022-10-24 forecast645458e81a0e.json 2023-01-06 17:54:00 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:00 UTC
    2022-10-17 forecast645468e7abd.json 2023-01-06 17:54:00 UTC 2023-01-06 17:54:00 UTC
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