Model: FluX - ARLR

    Name: Auto Regressive model with Likelihood Ratio based Model Selection
    Abbreviation: ARLR
    Owner: khoa
    Team name: FluX
    Description: Team name: FluX
    Team members: Aniruddha Adiga, Lijing Wang, Srini Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Jiangzhuo Chen, Anil Vullikanti, Madhav Marathe
    Data source(s): ILINet
    Methods: The method implements an autoregressive model on the weighted ILI time series, and derives a sparse model using a likelihood ratio based model selection. The method is an example of a stepwise regression method with an augmentation phase followed by and a reduction phase, where variables (in this case, lags) are added or removed based on the log-ratio of error term variances with and without the variable. Only producing short-term forecasts through this method, and seasonal forecasts are set to Uniform distribution. Out-of-sample forecasts were generated by using data from Delphi's Epidata API. Missing weeks in early seasons (e.g., EW20-40 for HHS regions before 2014) which were retrospectively filled in 2013EW52, were treated as missing, and filled by linear interpolation.
    Contributors:
    License: Other License
    Notes:
    Citation: None
    Methods: None
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/FluX_ARLR
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (0)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-18 (No data)
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-04 (No data)
    2020-04-27 (No data)
    2020-04-20 (No data)
    2020-04-13 (No data)
    2020-04-06 (No data)
    2020-03-30 (No data)
    2020-03-23 (No data)
    2020-03-16 (No data)
    2020-03-09 (No data)
    2020-03-02 (No data)
    2020-02-24 (No data)
    2020-02-17 (No data)
    2020-02-10 (No data)
    2020-02-03 (No data)
    2020-01-27 (No data)
    2020-01-20 (No data)
    2020-01-13 (No data)
    2020-01-06 (No data)
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2019-12-23 (No data)
    2019-12-16 (No data)
    2019-12-09 (No data)
    2019-12-02 (No data)
    2019-11-25 (No data)
    2019-11-18 (No data)
    2019-11-11 (No data)
    2019-11-04 (No data)
    2019-10-28 (No data)
    2019-10-21 (No data)
    2019-10-14 (No data)
    2019-10-07 (No data)
    2019-09-30 (No data)
    2019-05-20 (No data)
    2019-05-13 (No data)
    2019-05-06 (No data)
    2019-04-29 (No data)
    2019-04-22 (No data)
    2019-04-15 (No data)
    2019-04-08 (No data)
    2019-04-01 (No data)
    2019-03-25 (No data)
    2019-03-18 (No data)
    2019-03-11 (No data)
    2019-03-04 (No data)
    2019-02-25 (No data)
    2019-02-18 (No data)
    2019-02-11 (No data)
    2019-02-04 (No data)
    2019-01-28 (No data)
    2019-01-21 (No data)
    2019-01-14 (No data)
    2019-01-07 (No data)
    2018-12-31 (No data)
    2018-12-24 (No data)
    2018-12-17 (No data)
    2018-12-10 (No data)
    2018-12-03 (No data)
    2018-11-26 (No data)
    2018-11-19 (No data)
    2018-11-12 (No data)
    2018-11-05 (No data)
    2018-10-29 (No data)
    2018-10-22 (No data)
    2018-10-15 (No data)
    2018-10-08 (No data)
    2018-10-01 (No data)
    2018-04-30 (No data)
    2018-04-23 (No data)
    2018-04-16 (No data)
    2018-04-09 (No data)
    2018-04-02 (No data)
    2018-03-26 (No data)
    2018-03-19 (No data)
    2018-03-12 (No data)
    2018-03-05 (No data)
    2018-02-26 (No data)
    2018-02-19 (No data)
    2018-02-12 (No data)
    2018-02-05 (No data)
    2018-01-29 (No data)
    2018-01-22 (No data)
    2018-01-15 (No data)
    2018-01-08 (No data)
    2018-01-01 (No data)
    2017-12-25 (No data)
    2017-12-18 (No data)
    2017-12-11 (No data)
    2017-12-04 (No data)
    2017-11-27 (No data)
    2017-11-20 (No data)
    2017-11-13 (No data)
    2017-11-06 (No data)
    2017-10-30 (No data)
    2017-10-23 (No data)