| Name: | bivar_branching |
|---|---|
| Abbreviation: | KITmetricslab-bivar_branching |
| Owner: | epiforecasts |
| Team name: | KITmetricslab |
| Description: | Delta-variant and other cases are modelled as independent branching processes, with weekly growth\ \ rates following random walks. Forecasts for 3 and 4 wk are likely unreliable. |
| Contributors: | Johannes Bracher (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) <johannes.bracher@kit.edu> |
| License: | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 |
| Notes: | primary |
| Citation: | NA |
| Methods: | The total weekly incidence is modelled as the sum of two independent overdispersed branching processes (delta / non-delta cases; may be updated to other pairs of variants later), with the weekly growth rates following multiplicative random walks. Sequencing data are included via an additional binomial observation process with the probabilities for the two variants proportional to their occurrence in the two latent branching processes. Posterior samples are generated using the JAGS software. Priors were chosen as 'uninformative' uniform distributions, but may be specified in a more informative fashion in the future. In order to be included in the ensemble forecasts are generated up to 4 wk into the future, but given the simple model structure, three and four-week-ahead forecasts should be interpreted with caution. |
| Home: | https://github.com/jbracher/branching_process_delta |
| Auxiliary data: | NA |
| Timezero | Data Source | Upload Time | Issued at | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-10-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-09-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-09-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-09-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-09-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-09-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-08-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-08-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-08-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-08-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-07-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-07-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-07-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-07-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-07-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-06-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-06-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-06-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-06-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-05-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-05-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-05-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-04-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-04-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-04-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-04-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-04-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-03-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-03-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-03-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-03-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-02-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-02-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-02-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-02-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-01-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-01-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-01-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-01-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-01-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-31 | (No data) | |||
| 2024-01-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-12-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-11-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-11-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-11-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-11-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-11-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-11-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-10-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-09-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-08-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-31 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-07-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-06-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-05-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-04-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-03-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-03-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-03-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-03-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-03-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-03-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-03-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-03-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-02-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-02-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-02-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-02-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-02-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-02-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-02-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-02-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-12-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-12-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2023-01-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-12-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-12-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-12-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-12-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-12-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-12-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-11-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-11-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-11-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-11-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-11-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-11-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-11-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-11-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-31 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-10-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-09-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-09-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-09-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-09-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-09-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-09-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-09-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-09-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-31 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-08-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-07-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-06-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-06-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-06-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-06-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-06-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-06-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-06-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-06-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-05-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-04-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-04-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-04-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-04-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-04-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-04-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-04-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-04-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-03-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-03-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-03-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-03-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-03-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-03-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-03-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-03-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-02-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-02-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-02-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-02-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-02-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-02-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-02-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-02-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-31 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2022-01-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-12-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-31 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-11-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-10-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-09-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-09-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-09-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-09-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-09-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-09-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-09-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-09-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-08-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-07-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-07-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-07-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-07-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-07-12 | 2021-07-12-KITmetricslab-bivar_branching.csv | 2021-10-12 07:04:57 UTC | 2021-10-12 07:04:57 UTC | |
| 2021-07-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-07-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-06-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-07-05 | 2021-07-05-KITmetricslab-bivar_branching.csv | 2021-10-12 07:05:00 UTC | 2021-10-12 07:05:00 UTC | |
| 2021-06-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-06-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-06-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-06-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-06-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-06-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-06-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-31 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-24 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-17 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-10 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-05-03 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-04-25 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-04-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-04-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-04-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-04-19 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-04-12 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-04-05 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-29 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-04-26 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-02-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-02-21 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-02-28 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-02-22 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-02-14 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-02-15 | (No data) | |||
| 2021-03-08 | (No data) |