Model: Protea - Cheetah

    Name: Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages
    Abbreviation: Cheetah
    Owner: khoa
    Team name: Protea
    Description: Team name: Protea
    Team members: Craig J. McGowan (contact), Alysse J. Kowalski
    Data source(s): ilinet, google trends
    Methods: This model is a weighted ensemble between three component models. The first component is a seasonal average model constructed using Gaussian kernel densities based on previously observed data from the 2001/2001 season onwards, excluding the 2009/2010 pandemic season. The second component is the Protea Kudu model, described in more detail there. The final component is the Protea Springbok model, described in more detail there. Models are combined using monthly target-type weights, and the weighting scheme was chosen using leave-one-season-out cross validation in a similar method to the FluSight Network ensemble. For prospective forecasts, only ILINet data known at the time of the forecast are used, as retrieved from the CMU-Epidata API. For subtype percentages, the backfilled data are not available, however we use the cumulative percentage of samples of each subtype at a given week of the season rather than the weekly percentage, which is less susceptible to backfill effects as the season goes on. All code used in estimation and prediction is available at https://github.com/craigjmcgowan/FluForecast
    Contributors:
    License: Other License
    Notes:
    Citation: None
    Methods: None
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/Protea_Cheetah
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (50)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-18 (No data)
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-04 (No data)
    2020-04-27 (No data)
    2020-04-20 (No data)
    2020-04-13 (No data)
    2020-04-06 (No data)
    2020-03-30 (No data)
    2020-03-23 (No data)
    2020-03-16 (No data)
    2020-03-09 (No data)
    2020-03-02 EW10-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:59:09 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-02-24 EW09-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:49:01 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-02-17 EW08-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:48:37 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-02-10 EW07-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:48:09 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-02-03 EW06-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:47:44 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-01-27 EW05-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:47:20 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-01-20 EW04-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:46:56 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-01-13 EW03-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:46:31 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2020-01-06 EW02-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:46:06 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-30 EW01-2020-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:45:41 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-23 EW52-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:45:11 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-16 EW51-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:44:41 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-09 EW50-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:44:09 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-12-02 EW49-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:43:39 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-11-25 EW48-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:43:12 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-11-18 EW47-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:42:44 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-11-11 EW46-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:42:18 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-11-04 EW45-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:41:54 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-10-28 EW44-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:41:31 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-10-21 EW43-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:41:06 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-10-14 EW42-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:40:44 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-10-07 EW41-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-10 22:40:23 UTC 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-09-30 (No data)
    2019-05-20 (No data)
    2019-05-13 (No data)
    2019-05-06 (No data)
    2019-04-29 EW18-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:39:01 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-04-22 EW17-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:59 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-04-15 EW16-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:58 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-04-08 EW15-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:56 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-04-01 EW14-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:54 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-03-25 EW13-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:52 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-03-18 EW12-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:50 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-03-11 EW11-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:49 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-03-04 EW10-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:47 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-02-25 EW09-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:45 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-02-18 EW08-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:43 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-02-11 EW07-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:42 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-02-04 EW06-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:40 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-01-28 EW05-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:38 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-01-21 EW04-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:36 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-01-14 EW03-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:34 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2019-01-07 EW02-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:32 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-31 EW01-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:30 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-24 EW52-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:29 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-17 EW51-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:27 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-10 EW50-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:25 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-12-03 EW49-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:24 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-11-26 EW48-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:21 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-11-19 EW47-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:20 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-11-12 EW46-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:18 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-11-05 EW45-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:16 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-10-29 EW44-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:15 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-10-22 EW43-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2020-03-25 01:38:13 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-10-15 (No data)
    2018-10-08 (No data)
    2018-10-01 (No data)
    2018-04-30 (No data)
    2018-04-23 (No data)
    2018-04-16 (No data)
    2018-04-09 (No data)
    2018-04-02 (No data)
    2018-03-26 (No data)
    2018-03-19 (No data)
    2018-03-12 (No data)
    2018-03-05 (No data)
    2018-02-26 (No data)
    2018-02-19 (No data)
    2018-02-12 (No data)
    2018-02-05 (No data)
    2018-01-29 (No data)
    2018-01-22 (No data)
    2018-01-15 (No data)
    2018-01-08 (No data)
    2018-01-01 (No data)
    2017-12-25 (No data)
    2017-12-18 (No data)
    2017-12-11 (No data)
    2017-12-04 (No data)
    2017-11-27 (No data)
    2017-11-20 (No data)
    2017-11-13 (No data)
    2017-11-06 (No data)
    2017-10-30 (No data)
    2017-10-23 (No data)