| Name: | UTA - Empirical dynamic model |
|---|---|
| Abbreviation: | edm |
| Owner: | khoa |
| Team name: | UTAustin |
| Description: | Team name: UTAustin Team members: Spencer J Fox Data source(s): ILI Methods: The forecasting method uses basic empirical dynamic modeling to make predictions. This method uses a topological transformation of time series data to identify previous states of the time series that are similar to the current state. To make predictions it chooses a neighborhood of nearest neighbors of the current state, and projects those forward. Predictions are then made by the resultant location of the neighborhood (Sugihara And May 1990). In essence it's similar to a topological method of analogues approach. The model output is a mean and variance for future states of the time series. We simulate from a normal distribution with those parameters to generate potential time courses for the epidemic, and use those potential trajectories to obtain our target probability distributions. The model is implemented using R, and harnesses the rEDM package for running the forecasts and the epiforecast R package to ensure proper historical data use. |
| Contributors: | |
| License: | Other License |
| Notes: | |
| Citation: | None |
| Methods: | None |
| Home: | https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/first-papers/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/UTAustin_edm |
| Auxiliary data: | (No URL) |
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| 2018-01-29 | EW05-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:38 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-22 | EW04-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:37 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-15 | EW03-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:36 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-08 | EW02-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:35 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-01 | EW01-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:34 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-25 | EW52-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:33 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-18 | EW51-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:32 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-11 | EW50-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:31 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-04 | EW49-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:29 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-27 | EW48-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:28 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-20 | EW47-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:27 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-13 | EW46-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:26 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-06 | EW45-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:25 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-10-30 | EW44-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:24 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-10-23 | EW43-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:23 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC |