| Name: | SARIMA model with seasonal differencing |
|---|---|
| Abbreviation: | SARIMA2 |
| Owner: | khoa |
| Team name: | ReichLab |
| Description: | Team name: ReichLab Team members: Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich Data source(s): ilinet Methods: A seasonal ARIMA model is fit using the auto.arima function in the forecast package for R. The data are log-transformed, any infinite or missing values after the transformation are linearly imputed, and a first-order seasonal difference (at lag 52 weeks) is taken before fitting the model. A separate model is fit for each region. Through iterating the one-step-ahead predictions, this model fit yields a joint predictive distribution for incidence in all remaining weeks of the season. Appropriate integrals of this joint distribution are calculated via Monte Carlo integration to obtain predictions for the seasonal quantities. For making prospective predictions for each season, only data before the start of that season were used in fitting model parameters. All code used in estimation and prediction is available at https://github.com/reichlab/2017-2018-cdc-flu-contest |
| Contributors: | |
| License: | Other License |
| Notes: | |
| Citation: | None |
| Methods: | None |
| Home: | https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE |
| Auxiliary data: | (No URL) |
| Timezero | Data Source | Upload Time | Issued at | Version |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-05-18 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-05-11 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-05-04 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-04-27 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-04-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-04-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-04-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-03-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-03-23 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-03-16 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-03-09 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-03-02 | (No data) | |||
| 2020-02-24 | EW09-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:58:19 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-17 | EW08-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:57:53 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-10 | EW07-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:57:25 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-02-03 | EW06-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:56:57 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-27 | EW05-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:56:30 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-20 | EW04-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:56:03 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-13 | EW03-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:55:38 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2020-01-06 | EW02-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:55:12 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-30 | EW01-2020-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:54:46 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-23 | EW52-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:54:18 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-16 | EW51-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:53:54 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-09 | EW50-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:53:28 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-12-02 | EW49-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:53:03 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-25 | EW48-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:52:40 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-18 | EW47-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:52:18 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-11 | EW46-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:51:53 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-11-04 | EW45-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:51:31 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-28 | EW44-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:51:07 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-21 | EW43-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:50:45 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-14 | EW42-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE_backfill_none.csv | 2020-03-10 23:50:24 UTC | 2020-03-10 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-10-07 | (No data) | |||
| 2019-09-30 | (No data) | |||
| 2019-05-20 | (No data) | |||
| 2019-05-13 | (No data) | |||
| 2019-05-06 | (No data) | |||
| 2019-04-29 | EW18-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:57 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-22 | EW17-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:56 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-15 | EW16-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:55 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-08 | EW15-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:54 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-04-01 | EW14-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:53 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-03-25 | EW13-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:51 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-03-18 | EW12-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:50 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-03-11 | EW11-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:49 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-03-04 | EW10-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:48 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-02-25 | EW09-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:47 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-02-18 | EW08-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:45 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-02-11 | EW07-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:44 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-02-04 | EW06-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:43 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-01-28 | EW05-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:42 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-01-21 | EW04-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:40 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-01-14 | EW03-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:39 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2019-01-07 | EW02-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:38 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-31 | EW01-2019-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:36 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-24 | EW52-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:35 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-17 | EW51-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:33 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-10 | EW50-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:32 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-12-03 | EW49-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:30 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-11-26 | EW48-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:29 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-11-19 | EW47-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:27 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-11-12 | EW46-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:26 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-11-05 | EW45-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:24 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-29 | EW44-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:23 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-22 | EW43-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:22 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-15 | EW42-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-25 01:44:21 UTC | 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-10-08 | (No data) | |||
| 2018-10-01 | (No data) | |||
| 2018-04-30 | EW18-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:07 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-23 | EW17-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:06 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-16 | EW16-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:05 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-09 | EW15-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:04 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-02 | EW14-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:03 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-26 | EW13-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:02 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-19 | EW12-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:01 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-12 | EW11-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:33:00 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-05 | EW10-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:58 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-26 | EW09-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:57 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-19 | EW08-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:56 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-12 | EW07-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:55 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-05 | EW06-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:54 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-29 | EW05-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:52 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-22 | EW04-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:51 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-15 | EW03-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:49 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-08 | EW02-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:48 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-01 | EW01-2018-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:47 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-25 | EW52-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:46 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-18 | EW51-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:45 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-11 | EW50-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:43 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-04 | EW49-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:42 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-27 | EW48-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:41 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-20 | EW47-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:40 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-13 | EW46-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:39 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-06 | EW45-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:38 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-10-30 | EW44-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:37 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-10-23 | EW43-2017-ReichLab_sarima_seasonal_difference_TRUE.csv | 2020-03-12 03:32:36 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC |