Model: Epiforecasts / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine - epiforecasts-EpiNow2

    Name: EpiNow2 (epiforecasts)
    Abbreviation: epiforecasts-EpiNow2
    Owner: epiforecasts
    Team name: Epiforecasts / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
    Description: Semi-mechanistic estimation of the time-varying reproduction number for latent infections mapped to reported cases/deaths.
    Contributors: Sam Abbott, Nikos Bosse, Sebastian Funk
    License: MIT
    Notes: secondary
    Citation: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3957489
    Methods: EpiNow2 implements a Bayesian latent variable approach using the probabilistic programming language Stan, which works as follows. For an initial, unobserved, seeding time infections were estimated using an exponential model with priors based on observed growth. For each subsequent time step, previous imputed infections were summed, weighted by an uncertain generation time probability mass function, and combined with an estimate of Rt to give the incidence at that time. The infection trajectories were then mapped to mean reported case counts by convolving over an uncertain incubation period and report delay distribution. Observed reported case counts were then assumed to be generated from a negative binomial observation model with overdispersion, multiplied by a day of the week effect with an independent parameter for each day of the week. Temporal variation was controlled using an approximate Gaussian process with a Matern 3/2 kernel. Rt was assumed to be constant over the forecast horizon although a correction was applied to adjust for the time-varying proportion of the population that was susceptible. Deaths were then modelled as a convolution of forecast cases combined with some scaling factor, a day of the week effect and a negative binomial observation model.
    Home: https://epiforecasts.io/EpiNow2
    Auxiliary data: https://github.com/epiforecasts/europe-covid-forecast

    Forecasts (66)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2024-04-15 (No data)
    2024-04-08 (No data)
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    2022-06-27 2022-06-27-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-06-29 07:18:34 UTC 2022-06-29 07:18:34 UTC
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    2022-06-20 2022-06-20-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-06-22 07:19:28 UTC 2022-06-22 07:19:28 UTC
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    2022-06-13 2022-06-13-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-06-15 07:18:49 UTC 2022-06-15 07:18:49 UTC
    2022-06-05 (No data)
    2022-06-06 2022-06-06-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-06-08 07:19:16 UTC 2022-06-08 07:19:16 UTC
    2022-05-30 2022-05-30-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-06-01 07:21:13 UTC 2022-06-01 07:21:13 UTC
    2022-05-29 (No data)
    2022-05-23 2022-05-23-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-05-25 07:19:01 UTC 2022-05-25 07:19:01 UTC
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    2022-05-15 (No data)
    2022-05-16 2022-05-16-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-05-18 07:20:26 UTC 2022-05-18 07:20:26 UTC
    2022-05-09 2022-05-09-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-05-11 07:20:45 UTC 2022-05-11 07:20:45 UTC
    2022-05-08 (No data)
    2022-05-02 2022-05-02-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-05-04 07:19:24 UTC 2022-05-04 07:19:24 UTC
    2022-05-01 (No data)
    2022-04-24 (No data)
    2022-04-25 2022-04-25-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-04-27 07:21:02 UTC 2022-04-27 07:21:02 UTC
    2022-04-17 (No data)
    2022-04-18 2022-04-18-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-04-20 07:21:44 UTC 2022-04-20 07:21:44 UTC
    2022-04-10 (No data)
    2022-04-11 2022-04-11-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-04-13 07:20:00 UTC 2022-04-13 07:20:00 UTC
    2022-04-04 2022-04-04-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-04-06 07:21:52 UTC 2022-04-06 07:21:52 UTC
    2022-04-03 (No data)
    2022-03-28 2022-03-28-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-03-30 07:19:38 UTC 2022-03-30 07:19:38 UTC
    2022-03-27 (No data)
    2022-03-20 (No data)
    2022-03-21 2022-03-21-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-03-23 07:18:01 UTC 2022-03-23 07:18:01 UTC
    2022-03-13 (No data)
    2022-03-14 2022-03-14-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-03-16 07:19:11 UTC 2022-03-16 07:19:11 UTC
    2022-03-06 (No data)
    2022-03-07 2022-03-07-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-03-09 07:18:06 UTC 2022-03-09 07:18:06 UTC
    2022-02-27 (No data)
    2022-02-28 2022-02-28-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-03-02 07:17:09 UTC 2022-03-02 07:17:09 UTC
    2022-02-20 (No data)
    2022-02-21 2022-02-21-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-02-23 07:16:57 UTC 2022-02-23 07:16:57 UTC
    2022-02-13 (No data)
    2022-02-14 2022-02-14-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-02-16 07:17:19 UTC 2022-02-16 07:17:19 UTC
    2022-02-06 (No data)
    2022-02-07 2022-02-07-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-02-09 07:17:53 UTC 2022-02-09 07:17:53 UTC
    2022-01-30 (No data)
    2022-01-31 2022-01-31-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-02-02 07:19:37 UTC 2022-02-02 07:19:37 UTC
    2022-01-23 (No data)
    2022-01-24 2022-01-24-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-01-26 07:19:25 UTC 2022-01-26 07:19:25 UTC
    2022-01-16 (No data)
    2022-01-17 2022-01-17-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-01-19 07:12:58 UTC 2022-01-19 07:12:58 UTC
    2022-01-09 (No data)
    2022-01-10 2022-01-10-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-01-12 07:21:00 UTC 2022-01-12 07:21:00 UTC
    2022-01-02 (No data)
    2022-01-03 2022-01-03-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2022-01-05 07:21:13 UTC 2022-01-05 07:21:13 UTC
    2021-12-26 (No data)
    2021-12-27 2021-12-27-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-12-29 07:21:21 UTC 2021-12-29 07:21:21 UTC
    2021-12-21 (No data)
    2021-12-19 (No data)
    2021-12-20 2021-12-20-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-12-22 07:22:56 UTC 2021-12-22 07:22:56 UTC
    2021-12-12 (No data)
    2021-12-13 2021-12-13-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-12-15 07:09:04 UTC 2021-12-15 07:09:04 UTC
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    2021-12-06 2021-12-06-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-12-08 07:06:24 UTC 2021-12-08 07:06:24 UTC
    2021-11-28 (No data)
    2021-11-29 2021-11-29-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-12-01 07:06:48 UTC 2021-12-01 07:06:48 UTC
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    2021-10-18 2021-10-18-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-10-20 07:15:51 UTC 2021-10-20 07:15:51 UTC
    2021-10-10 (No data)
    2021-10-11 2021-10-11-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-10-13 07:08:46 UTC 2021-10-13 07:08:46 UTC
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    2021-10-04 2021-10-04-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-10-06 07:05:12 UTC 2021-10-06 07:05:12 UTC
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    2021-08-30 2021-08-30-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-09-01 07:07:19 UTC 2021-09-01 07:07:19 UTC
    2021-08-22 (No data)
    2021-08-23 2021-08-23-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-08-25 07:06:36 UTC 2021-08-25 07:06:36 UTC
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    2021-08-16 2021-08-16-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-08-18 07:07:48 UTC 2021-08-18 07:07:48 UTC
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    2021-08-09 2021-08-09-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-08-11 07:07:37 UTC 2021-08-11 07:07:37 UTC
    2021-08-01 (No data)
    2021-08-02 2021-08-02-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-08-04 07:18:50 UTC 2021-08-04 07:18:50 UTC
    2021-07-25 (No data)
    2021-07-26 2021-07-26-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-07-29 07:16:14 UTC 2021-07-29 07:16:14 UTC
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    2021-07-19 2021-07-19-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-07-21 07:16:37 UTC 2021-07-21 07:16:37 UTC
    2021-07-12 2021-07-12-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-07-14 07:20:14 UTC 2021-07-14 07:20:14 UTC
    2021-07-11 (No data)
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    2021-06-27 (No data)
    2021-07-05 2021-07-05-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-07-07 12:43:58 UTC 2021-07-07 12:43:58 UTC
    2021-06-28 2021-06-28-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-07-07 12:01:06 UTC 2021-07-07 12:01:06 UTC
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    2021-06-21 2021-06-21-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-06-27 20:53:49 UTC 2021-06-27 20:53:49 UTC
    2021-06-14 2021-06-14-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-06-27 13:00:35 UTC 2021-06-27 13:00:35 UTC
    2021-06-07 2021-06-07-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-06-27 13:00:16 UTC 2021-06-27 13:00:16 UTC
    2021-05-31 2021-05-31-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-06-27 13:00:00 UTC 2021-06-27 13:00:00 UTC
    2021-05-24 2021-05-24-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-06-27 12:59:35 UTC 2021-06-27 12:59:35 UTC
    2021-05-17 2021-05-17-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-06-27 12:59:07 UTC 2021-06-27 12:59:07 UTC
    2021-05-10 2021-05-10-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-06-27 12:58:48 UTC 2021-06-27 12:58:48 UTC
    2021-05-02 (No data)
    2021-05-03 2021-05-03-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:03:31 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-03-22 2021-03-22-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:02:38 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-04-19 2021-04-19-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:03:14 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-04-12 2021-04-12-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:03:06 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-04-05 2021-04-05-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:02:58 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-03-29 2021-03-29-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:02:50 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-04-26 2021-04-26-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:03:24 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-03-14 (No data)
    2021-03-15 2021-03-15-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:02:28 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-22 2021-02-22-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:02:13 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
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    2021-02-15 2021-02-15-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:02:10 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC
    2021-03-08 2021-03-08-epiforecasts-EpiNow2.csv 2021-05-06 14:02:18 UTC 2021-05-06 12:00:00 UTC