| Name: | Statistical Ensemble (using the eight submitted components, with no backcasting or nowcasting) |
|---|---|
| Abbreviation: | Stat |
| Owner: | khoa |
| Team name: | Delphi |
| Description: | Team name: Delphi Team members: Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Shannon Gallagher, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Rob Tibshirani Data source(s): ILINet Methods: Constructs an adaptively weighted ensemble of the eight other components shared here (but training on forecasts from additional seasons). Weights are selected using the degenerate EM algorithm on a window of training data that is a function of the week of the season, target, and type of prediction (Point vs. Bin). Uses two types of component forecasts in combination to train the ensemble weights: (a) leave-one-season-out cross-validation component forecasts for 2003/2004 to 2009/2010, excluding data from 2010/2011 onward, and (b) retrospective forecasts using past seasons' data for 2010/2011 onwards. When generating forecasts for a given test season, the ensemble trains weights using only component forecasts made using past seasons' data, and uses these weights to combine component forecasts for the test week that were made using only data from previous weeks; observations from the test season use mimicPastEpidataDF to approximate what the ILINet report for the forecast week looked like. The code for generating these forecasts is available at https://github.com/cmu-delphi/epiforecast-R. |
| Contributors: | |
| License: | Other License |
| Notes: | |
| Citation: | None |
| Methods: | None |
| Home: | https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/first-papers/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast |
| Auxiliary data: | (No URL) |
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| 2018-04-30 | EW18-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:13 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-23 | EW17-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:11 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-16 | EW16-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:10 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-09 | EW15-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:08 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-04-02 | EW14-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:07 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-26 | EW13-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:06 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-19 | EW12-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:04 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-12 | EW11-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:03 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-03-05 | EW10-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:01 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-26 | EW09-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:12:00 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-19 | EW08-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:59 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-12 | EW07-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:57 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-02-05 | EW06-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:56 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-29 | EW05-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:55 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-22 | EW04-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:53 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-15 | EW03-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:52 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-08 | EW02-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:51 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2018-01-01 | EW01-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:49 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-25 | EW52-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:48 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-18 | EW51-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:47 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-11 | EW50-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:45 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-12-04 | EW49-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:44 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-27 | EW48-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:42 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-20 | EW47-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:41 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-13 | EW46-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:40 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-11-06 | EW45-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:38 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-10-30 | EW44-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:37 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC | |
| 2017-10-23 | EW43-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv | 2020-03-12 03:11:36 UTC | 2020-03-12 12:00:00 UTC |