Model: Delphi - EmpiricalBayes1

    Name: Empirical Bayes (conditioning on past four weeks only, 2017/2018 version)
    Abbreviation: EmpiricalBayes1
    Owner: khoa
    Team name: Delphi
    Description: Team name: Delphi
    Team members: Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Shannon Gallagher, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Rob Tibshirani
    Data source(s): ILINet
    Methods: Uses the Empirical Bayes method as described here: http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004382, but using smaller local transformations to form the prior, starting trajectories with week 31, and conditioning only on the past 4 weeks' wILI values. A small amount of smoothing is applied when calculating target distributions. All parameter settings are heuristically chosen. All training seasons precede the test season, and observations from the test season use mimicPastEpidataDF to approximate what the ILINet report for the forecast week looked like. The code for generating these forecasts is available at https://github.com/cmu-delphi/epiforecast-R.
    Contributors:
    License: Other License
    Notes:
    Citation: None
    Methods: None
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/first-papers/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4
    Auxiliary data: (No URL)

    Forecasts (28)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Time Issued at Version
    2020-05-18 (No data)
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-04 (No data)
    2020-04-27 (No data)
    2020-04-20 (No data)
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    2020-03-02 (No data)
    2020-02-24 (No data)
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    2019-12-30 (No data)
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    2019-12-16 (No data)
    2019-12-09 (No data)
    2019-12-02 (No data)
    2019-11-25 (No data)
    2019-11-18 (No data)
    2019-11-11 (No data)
    2019-11-04 (No data)
    2019-10-28 (No data)
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    2019-10-14 (No data)
    2019-10-07 (No data)
    2019-09-30 (No data)
    2019-05-20 (No data)
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    2018-10-08 (No data)
    2018-10-01 (No data)
    2018-04-30 EW18-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:51 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-23 EW17-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:49 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-16 EW16-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:48 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-09 EW15-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:46 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-04-02 EW14-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:45 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-26 EW13-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:43 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-19 EW12-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:41 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-12 EW11-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:40 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-03-05 EW10-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:38 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-26 EW09-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:37 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-19 EW08-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:36 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-12 EW07-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:34 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-02-05 EW06-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:33 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-29 EW05-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:31 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-22 EW04-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:30 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-15 EW03-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:28 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-08 EW02-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:26 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2018-01-01 EW01-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:25 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-25 EW52-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:23 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-18 EW51-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:22 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-11 EW50-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:21 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-12-04 EW49-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:19 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-27 EW48-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:18 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-20 EW47-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:16 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-13 EW46-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:15 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-11-06 EW45-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:13 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-10-30 EW44-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:12 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC
    2017-10-23 EW43-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2020-03-25 00:54:10 UTC 2020-03-25 12:00:00 UTC