Model 
Score 
# Score Values 
Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Absolute Error

13475

Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Error

13475

Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (single bin)

13475

Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Bayesian Model Averaging

Absolute Error

13475

Bayesian Model Averaging

Error

13475

Bayesian Model Averaging

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Bayesian Model Averaging

Log score (single bin)

13475

Bayesian Model Averaging

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Cheetah (Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages)

Absolute Error

13475

Cheetah (Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages)

Error

13475

Cheetah (Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages)

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Cheetah (Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages)

Log score (single bin)

13475

Cheetah (Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Absolute Error

13475

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Error

13475

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (single bin)

13475

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy + Googlebased nowcasts

Absolute Error

12650

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy + Googlebased nowcasts

Error

12650

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy + Googlebased nowcasts

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy + Googlebased nowcasts

Log score (single bin)

12650

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy + Googlebased nowcasts

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Absolute Error

13475

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Error

13475

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (single bin)

13475

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Absolute Error

13475

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Error

13475

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (single bin)

13475

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Absolute Error

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Error

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Log score (single bin)

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Absolute Error

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Error

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Log score (single bin)

12650

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Absolute Error

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Error

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Log score (single bin)

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Absolute Error

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Error

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Log score (single bin)

12650

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

Kernel Density Estimation

Absolute Error

12650

Kernel Density Estimation

Error

12650

Kernel Density Estimation

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Kernel Density Estimation

Log score (single bin)

12650

Kernel Density Estimation

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

Kudu (Subtype weighted historical average model)

Absolute Error

13475

Kudu (Subtype weighted historical average model)

Error

13475

Kudu (Subtype weighted historical average model)

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Kudu (Subtype weighted historical average model)

Log score (single bin)

13475

Kudu (Subtype weighted historical average model)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Absolute Error

13475

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Error

13475

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Log score (single bin)

13475

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults, 2018/2019 version)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Absolute Error

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Error

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Log score (single bin)

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Absolute Error

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Error

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Log score (single bin)

12650

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Absolute Error

12650

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Error

12650

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Log score (multi bin)

12650

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Log score (single bin)

12650

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Absolute Error

12650

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Error

12650

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Log score (multi bin)

12650

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Log score (single bin)

12650

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650

Springbok (Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors)

Absolute Error

13475

Springbok (Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors)

Error

13475

Springbok (Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors)

Log score (multi bin)

13475

Springbok (Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors)

Log score (single bin)

13475

Springbok (Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

13475

Uniform Distribution

Absolute Error

12650

Uniform Distribution

Error

12650

Uniform Distribution

Log score (multi bin)

12650

Uniform Distribution

Log score (single bin)

12650

Uniform Distribution

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

12650
