Model 
Score 
# Score Values 
Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults)

Absolute Error

3135

Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults)

Error

3135

Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (single bin)

3135

Basis Regression (epiforecast package defaults)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Bayesian Model Averaging

Absolute Error

3080

Bayesian Model Averaging

Error

3080

Bayesian Model Averaging

Log score (multi bin)

3080

Bayesian Model Averaging

Log score (single bin)

3080

Bayesian Model Averaging

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3080

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Absolute Error

3135

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Error

3135

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (single bin)

3135

Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Dynamic Bayesian Model plus

Absolute Error

1595

Dynamic Bayesian Model plus

Error

1595

Dynamic Bayesian Model plus

Log score (multi bin)

1595

Dynamic Bayesian Model plus

Log score (single bin)

1595

Dynamic Bayesian Model plus

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

1595

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy, 2017/2018 version

Absolute Error

1540

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy, 2017/2018 version

Error

1540

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy, 2017/2018 version

Log score (multi bin)

1540

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy, 2017/2018 version

Log score (single bin)

1540

Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy, 2017/2018 version

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

1540

Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors

Absolute Error

1595

Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors

Error

1595

Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors

Log score (multi bin)

1595

Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors

Log score (single bin)

1595

Dynamic Harmonic Model with ARIMA errors

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

1595

Empirical Bayes (conditioning on past four weeks only, 2017/2018 version)

Absolute Error

1540

Empirical Bayes (conditioning on past four weeks only, 2017/2018 version)

Error

1540

Empirical Bayes (conditioning on past four weeks only, 2017/2018 version)

Log score (multi bin)

1540

Empirical Bayes (conditioning on past four weeks only, 2017/2018 version)

Log score (single bin)

1540

Empirical Bayes (conditioning on past four weeks only, 2017/2018 version)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

1540

Empirical Bayes (epiforecast package defaults, 2017/2018 version)

Absolute Error

1540

Empirical Bayes (epiforecast package defaults, 2017/2018 version)

Error

1540

Empirical Bayes (epiforecast package defaults, 2017/2018 version)

Log score (multi bin)

1540

Empirical Bayes (epiforecast package defaults, 2017/2018 version)

Log score (single bin)

1540

Empirical Bayes (epiforecast package defaults, 2017/2018 version)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

1540

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults)

Absolute Error

3135

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults)

Error

3135

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (single bin)

3135

Empirical Futures (epiforecast package defaults)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults)

Absolute Error

3135

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults)

Error

3135

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (single bin)

3135

Empirical Trajectories (epiforecast package defaults)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Absolute Error

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Error

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Log score (single bin)

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SEIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Absolute Error

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Error

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Log score (single bin)

3135

Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter SIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Absolute Error

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Error

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Log score (multi bin)

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Log score (single bin)

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SEIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Absolute Error

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Error

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Log score (multi bin)

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Log score (single bin)

3190

Ensemble Kalman Filter SIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3190

Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages

Absolute Error

1595

Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages

Error

1595

Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages

Log score (multi bin)

1595

Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages

Log score (single bin)

1595

Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

1595

Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

Absolute Error

3135

Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

Error

3135

Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

Log score (single bin)

3135

Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Kernel Density Estimation

Absolute Error

3190

Kernel Density Estimation

Error

3190

Kernel Density Estimation

Log score (multi bin)

3190

Kernel Density Estimation

Log score (single bin)

3190

Kernel Density Estimation

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3190

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Absolute Error

3135

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Error

3135

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Log score (single bin)

3135

Markovian Delta Density (epiforecast package defaults)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Absolute Error

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Error

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Log score (multi bin)

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Log score (single bin)

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SEIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Absolute Error

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Error

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Log score (multi bin)

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Log score (single bin)

3190

Rank Histogram Filter SIRS

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3190

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Absolute Error

3135

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Error

3135

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Log score (multi bin)

3135

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Log score (single bin)

3135

SARIMA model with seasonal differencing

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Absolute Error

3135

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Error

3135

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Log score (multi bin)

3135

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Log score (single bin)

3135

SARIMA model without seasonal differencing

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

Statistical Ensemble (using the eight submitted components, with no backcasting or nowcasting, 2017/2018 version)

Absolute Error

1540

Statistical Ensemble (using the eight submitted components, with no backcasting or nowcasting, 2017/2018 version)

Error

1540

Statistical Ensemble (using the eight submitted components, with no backcasting or nowcasting, 2017/2018 version)

Log score (multi bin)

1540

Statistical Ensemble (using the eight submitted components, with no backcasting or nowcasting, 2017/2018 version)

Log score (single bin)

1540

Statistical Ensemble (using the eight submitted components, with no backcasting or nowcasting, 2017/2018 version)

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

1540

Subtype weighted historical average model

Absolute Error

1595

Subtype weighted historical average model

Error

1595

Subtype weighted historical average model

Log score (multi bin)

1595

Subtype weighted historical average model

Log score (single bin)

1595

Subtype weighted historical average model

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

1595

UTA  Empirical dynamic model, 2017/2018 version

Absolute Error

825

UTA  Empirical dynamic model, 2017/2018 version

Error

825

UTA  Empirical dynamic model, 2017/2018 version

Log score (multi bin)

825

UTA  Empirical dynamic model, 2017/2018 version

Log score (single bin)

825

UTA  Empirical dynamic model, 2017/2018 version

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

825

Uniform Distribution

Absolute Error

3135

Uniform Distribution

Error

3135

Uniform Distribution

Log score (multi bin)

3135

Uniform Distribution

Log score (single bin)

3135

Uniform Distribution

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

constantweights

Absolute Error

3135

constantweights

Error

3135

constantweights

Log score (multi bin)

3135

constantweights

Log score (single bin)

3135

constantweights

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

equalweights

Absolute Error

3080

equalweights

Error

3080

equalweights

Log score (multi bin)

3080

equalweights

Log score (single bin)

3080

equalweights

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3080

targetregionweights

Absolute Error

3080

targetregionweights

Error

3080

targetregionweights

Log score (multi bin)

3080

targetregionweights

Log score (single bin)

3080

targetregionweights

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3080

targettypeweights

Absolute Error

3135

targettypeweights

Error

3135

targettypeweights

Log score (multi bin)

3135

targettypeweights

Log score (single bin)

3135

targettypeweights

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135

targetweights

Absolute Error

3135

targetweights

Error

3135

targetweights

Log score (multi bin)

3135

targetweights

Log score (single bin)

3135

targetweights

Probability Integral Transform (PIT)

3135
