Model: UA - Epidemic Cosine API

    Name: Epidemic Cosine
    Abbreviation: EpiCos
    Owner: kgle
    Project: CDC Real-time Forecast
    Team name: UA
    Description: Team name: UA
    Team members: Hannah Biegel and Joceline Lega
    Data source(s): ILINet
    Methods: EpiCos is an ODE model developed to match the historical trends in wILI. To combine the wILI with the model during the season, a variational data assimilation method is used (sometimes called 4D-Var) to fit model parameters and initial condition of the differential equation. For the data assimilation piece of EpiCos, a prior distribution of the parameters is estimated by fitting the model to historical data available by the time of the first forecast of the season, i.e. EW 40. Through the Delphi API the furthest back we were able to obtain the historical wILI data from EW 40 of 1997 through EW 20 of 2008 was issued on EW 52 of 2013 (this does not strictly abide by the backfill availability, but is likely that these values do not differ much from data that would have been available in 2010). Aside from these weeks, wILI historical data was only used that was issued by the forecast date. For example, to forecast the 2010-2011 season, priors were estimated using wILI from EW 40 in 1997 through EW 40 in 2010, where the wILI for EW 40 of 2008 through EW 40 of 2010 were only issued as recently as EW 40 in 2010. A forecast for EW 50 in the 2010 season would then only use wILI data from the current season that had been issued by EW 50 in 2010. From the 2014-15 flu season onward, the backfill issue was fully adhered to even during the estimation of the prior distribution step.
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/component-models/UA_EpiCos
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (5)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Date
    2017-10-23 (No data)
    2017-10-30 (No data)
    2017-11-06 (No data)
    2017-11-13 (No data)
    2017-11-20 (No data)
    2017-11-27 (No data)
    2017-12-04 (No data)
    2017-12-11 (No data)
    2017-12-18 (No data)
    2017-12-25 (No data)
    2018-01-01 (No data)
    2018-01-08 (No data)
    2018-01-15 (No data)
    2018-01-22 (No data)
    2018-01-29 (No data)
    2018-02-05 (No data)
    2018-02-12 (No data)
    2018-02-19 (No data)
    2018-02-26 (No data)
    2018-03-05 (No data)
    2018-03-12 (No data)
    2018-03-19 (No data)
    2018-03-26 (No data)
    2018-04-02 (No data)
    2018-04-09 (No data)
    2018-04-16 (No data)
    2018-04-23 (No data)
    2018-04-30 (No data)
    2018-10-08 (No data)
    2018-10-15 (No data)
    2018-10-22 (No data)
    2018-10-29 (No data)
    2018-11-05 (No data)
    2018-11-12 (No data)
    2018-11-19 (No data)
    2018-11-26 (No data)
    2018-12-03 (No data)
    2018-12-10 (No data)
    2018-12-17 (No data)
    2018-12-24 (No data)
    2018-12-31 (No data)
    2019-01-07 (No data)
    2019-01-14 (No data)
    2019-01-21 (No data)
    2019-01-28 (No data)
    2019-02-04 (No data)
    2019-02-11 (No data)
    2019-02-18 (No data)
    2019-02-25 (No data)
    2019-03-04 (No data)
    2019-03-11 (No data)
    2019-03-18 (No data)
    2019-03-25 (No data)
    2019-04-01 (No data)
    2019-04-08 (No data)
    2019-04-15 (No data)
    2019-04-22 (No data)
    2019-04-29 (No data)
    2019-09-30 EW40-2019-UA_EpiCos.csv 2019-11-01 12:05:07
    2019-10-07 EW41-2019-UA_EpiCos.csv 2019-11-01 12:06:31
    2019-10-14 EW42-2019-UA_EpiCos.csv 2019-11-01 12:07:38
    2019-10-21 EW43-2019-UA_EpiCos.csv 2019-11-06 11:48:23
    2019-10-28 EW44-2019-UA_EpiCos.csv 2019-11-15 08:55:03
    2019-11-04 (No data)
    2019-11-11 (No data)
    2019-11-18 (No data)
    2019-11-25 (No data)
    2019-12-02 (No data)
    2019-12-09 (No data)
    2019-12-16 (No data)
    2019-12-23 (No data)
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2020-01-06 (No data)
    2020-01-13 (No data)
    2020-01-20 (No data)
    2020-01-27 (No data)
    2020-02-03 (No data)
    2020-02-10 (No data)
    2020-02-17 (No data)
    2020-02-24 (No data)
    2020-03-02 (No data)
    2020-03-09 (No data)
    2020-03-16 (No data)
    2020-03-23 (No data)
    2020-03-30 (No data)
    2020-04-06 (No data)
    2020-04-13 (No data)
    2020-04-20 (No data)
    2020-04-27 (No data)
    2020-05-04 (No data)
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-18 (No data)