Model: FluOutlook - Augmented Mechanistic GLEAM Ensemble API

    Name: Augmented Mechanistic GLEAM Ensemble
    Abbreviation: MechAug
    Owner: kgle
    Project: CDC Real-time Forecast
    Team name: FluOutlook
    Description: Team name: FluOutlook
    Team members: Alessandro Vespignani, Qian Zhang, Xinyue Xiong, Mauricio Santillana, Fred Lu.
    Data source(s): ILI Net, Athena Health
    Methods: This forecasting method is a combination of state of the art Machine Learning algorithm and a mechanistic model based on GLEAM, an epidemic stochastic generative model. At the begining of the flu season, GLEAM seeded by four different data sources (Athena, FluNearYou, Twitter, Population) generates four different forecasts for the flu profile. At each week along the flu season, the weekly ILI Net data augmented by the Machine Learning forecast is utilized in GLEAM to provide adaptive weekly forecast. The four weekly forecasts are combined by Bayesian Model Averaging to form the final forecast.
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/component-models/FluOutlook_MechAug
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (3)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Date
    2017-10-23 (No data)
    2017-10-30 (No data)
    2017-11-06 (No data)
    2017-11-13 (No data)
    2017-11-20 (No data)
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    2018-01-01 (No data)
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    2019-10-14 EW42-2019-FluOutlook_MechAug.csv 2019-11-08 12:06:41
    2019-10-21 EW43-2019-FluOutlook_MechAug.csv 2019-11-08 12:07:42
    2019-10-28 EW44-2019-FluOutlook_MechAug.csv 2019-11-15 09:59:29
    2019-11-04 (No data)
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    2020-05-18 (No data)