Model: Protea - Subtype weighted historical average model API

    Name: Subtype weighted historical average model
    Abbreviation: Kudu
    Owner: kgle
    Project: CDC Real-time Forecast
    Team name: Protea
    Description: Team name: Protea
    Team members: Craig J. McGowan (contact), Alysse J. Kowalski
    Data source(s): ilinet, who-nrevss lab data
    Methods: This model is an influenza subtype-specific historical average model. Separate
    Gaussian kernel densities for H1 and H3 behavior are calculated from prior
    ILINet data weighted by the cumulative proportion of viruses from each
    subtype at a given point in the season (for seasonal targets) or the
    proportion of viruses in the prior 6 weeks (for week ahead targets). Forecasts
    are generated by weighting each subtype-specific density by the observed
    ratios of H1 and H3 viruses at each week and integrating the predictive
    density. For prospective forecasts, only ILINet data known at the time of the
    forecast are used, as retrieved from the CMU-Epidata API. For subtype
    percentages, the backfilled data are not available. The cumulative percentage
    of samples of each subtype at a given week of the season are less susceptible
    to backfill effects as the season goes on than weekly values. All code used in
    estimation and prediction is available at
    https://github.com/craigjmcgowan/FluForecast
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/Protea_Kudu
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (33)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Date
    2017-10-23 (No data)
    2017-10-30 (No data)
    2017-11-06 (No data)
    2017-11-13 (No data)
    2017-11-20 (No data)
    2017-11-27 (No data)
    2017-12-04 (No data)
    2017-12-11 (No data)
    2017-12-18 (No data)
    2017-12-25 (No data)
    2018-01-01 (No data)
    2018-01-08 (No data)
    2018-01-15 (No data)
    2018-01-22 (No data)
    2018-01-29 (No data)
    2018-02-05 (No data)
    2018-02-12 (No data)
    2018-02-19 (No data)
    2018-02-26 (No data)
    2018-03-05 (No data)
    2018-03-12 (No data)
    2018-03-19 (No data)
    2018-03-26 (No data)
    2018-04-02 (No data)
    2018-04-09 (No data)
    2018-04-16 (No data)
    2018-04-23 (No data)
    2018-04-30 (No data)
    2018-10-08 (No data)
    2018-10-15 EW42-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:15:19
    2018-10-22 EW43-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:15:51
    2018-10-29 EW44-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:16:30
    2018-11-05 EW45-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:16:59
    2018-11-12 EW46-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:17:31
    2018-11-19 EW47-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:18:04
    2018-11-26 EW48-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:18:36
    2018-12-03 EW49-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:19:09
    2018-12-10 EW50-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:19:43
    2018-12-17 EW51-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:20:14
    2018-12-24 EW52-2018-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:20:45
    2018-12-31 EW01-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:21:31
    2019-01-07 EW02-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:22:09
    2019-01-14 EW03-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:23:02
    2019-01-21 EW04-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:23:39
    2019-01-28 EW05-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:24:14
    2019-02-04 EW06-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:24:48
    2019-02-11 EW07-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:25:23
    2019-02-18 EW08-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:26:00
    2019-02-25 EW09-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:26:35
    2019-03-04 EW10-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:27:10
    2019-03-11 EW11-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:27:44
    2019-03-18 EW12-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:28:20
    2019-03-25 EW13-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:28:58
    2019-04-01 EW14-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:29:36
    2019-04-08 EW15-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:30:13
    2019-04-15 EW16-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:30:53
    2019-04-22 EW17-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:31:37
    2019-04-29 EW18-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-10-22 07:32:17
    2019-09-30 (No data)
    2019-10-07 EW41-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-11-08 12:42:11
    2019-10-14 EW42-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-11-08 12:43:08
    2019-10-21 EW43-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-11-08 12:44:04
    2019-10-28 EW44-2019-Protea_Kudu.csv 2019-11-15 08:46:40
    2019-11-04 (No data)
    2019-11-11 (No data)
    2019-11-18 (No data)
    2019-11-25 (No data)
    2019-12-02 (No data)
    2019-12-09 (No data)
    2019-12-16 (No data)
    2019-12-23 (No data)
    2019-12-30 (No data)
    2020-01-06 (No data)
    2020-01-13 (No data)
    2020-01-20 (No data)
    2020-01-27 (No data)
    2020-02-03 (No data)
    2020-02-10 (No data)
    2020-02-17 (No data)
    2020-02-24 (No data)
    2020-03-02 (No data)
    2020-03-09 (No data)
    2020-03-16 (No data)
    2020-03-23 (No data)
    2020-03-30 (No data)
    2020-04-06 (No data)
    2020-04-13 (No data)
    2020-04-20 (No data)
    2020-04-27 (No data)
    2020-05-04 (No data)
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-18 (No data)