Model: Protea - Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages API

    Name: Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages
    Abbreviation: Cheetah
    Owner: kgle
    Project: CDC Real-time Forecast
    Team name: Protea
    Description: Team name: Protea
    Team members: Craig J. McGowan (contact), Alysse J. Kowalski
    Data source(s): ilinet, google trends, who-nrevss lab data
    Methods: this model is a weighted ensemble between three component models. The first
    component is a seasonal average model constructed using Gaussian kernel
    densities based on previously observed data from the 2001/2001 season onwards,
    excluding the 2009/2010 pandemic season. The second component is the Protea
    Kudu model, described in more detail there. The final component is the Protea
    Springbok model, described in more detail there. Models are combined using
    monthly target-type weights, and the weighting scheme was chosen using
    leave-one-season-out cross validation in a similar method to the FluSight
    Network ensemble. For prospective forecasts, only ILINet data known at the
    time of the forecast areused, as retrieved from the CMU-Epidata API. For
    subtype percentages, the backfilled data are not available, however we use the
    cumulative percentage of samples of each subtype at a given week of the season
    rather than the weekly percentage, which is less susceptible to backfill
    effects as the season goes on. All code used in estimation and prediction is
    available at https://github.com/craigjmcgowan/FluForecast
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/master/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/Protea_Cheetah
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (33)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Date
    2017-10-23 (No data)
    2017-10-30 (No data)
    2017-11-06 (No data)
    2017-11-13 (No data)
    2017-11-20 (No data)
    2017-11-27 (No data)
    2017-12-04 (No data)
    2017-12-11 (No data)
    2017-12-18 (No data)
    2017-12-25 (No data)
    2018-01-01 (No data)
    2018-01-08 (No data)
    2018-01-15 (No data)
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    2018-03-19 (No data)
    2018-03-26 (No data)
    2018-04-02 (No data)
    2018-04-09 (No data)
    2018-04-16 (No data)
    2018-04-23 (No data)
    2018-04-30 (No data)
    2018-10-08 (No data)
    2018-10-15 EW42-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 06:58:08
    2018-10-22 EW43-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 06:58:37
    2018-10-29 EW44-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 06:59:27
    2018-11-05 EW45-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:00:00
    2018-11-12 EW46-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:00:30
    2018-11-19 EW47-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:01:05
    2018-11-26 EW48-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:01:40
    2018-12-03 EW49-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:02:22
    2018-12-10 EW50-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:03:05
    2018-12-17 EW51-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:03:35
    2018-12-24 EW52-2018-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:04:06
    2018-12-31 EW01-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:04:39
    2019-01-07 EW02-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:05:15
    2019-01-14 EW03-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:05:53
    2019-01-21 EW04-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:06:32
    2019-01-28 EW05-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:07:03
    2019-02-04 EW06-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:07:40
    2019-02-11 EW07-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:08:11
    2019-02-18 EW08-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:08:45
    2019-02-25 EW09-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:09:20
    2019-03-04 EW10-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:09:52
    2019-03-11 EW11-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:10:32
    2019-03-18 EW12-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:11:09
    2019-03-25 EW13-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:11:44
    2019-04-01 EW14-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:12:22
    2019-04-08 EW15-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:12:58
    2019-04-15 EW16-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:13:34
    2019-04-22 EW17-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:14:13
    2019-04-29 EW18-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-22 07:14:50
    2019-09-30 (No data)
    2019-10-07 EW41-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-31 03:13:30
    2019-10-14 EW42-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-10-31 03:14:03
    2019-10-21 EW43-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-11-06 11:44:51
    2019-10-28 EW44-2019-Protea_Cheetah.csv 2019-11-15 08:45:27
    2019-11-04 (No data)
    2019-11-11 (No data)
    2019-11-18 (No data)
    2019-11-25 (No data)
    2019-12-02 (No data)
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    2020-04-13 (No data)
    2020-04-20 (No data)
    2020-04-27 (No data)
    2020-05-04 (No data)
    2020-05-11 (No data)
    2020-05-18 (No data)