Model: UTAustin - UTA - Empirical dynamic model, 2017/2018 version API

    Name: UTA - Empirical dynamic model, 2017/2018 version
    Abbreviation: edm
    Owner: kgle
    Project: CDC Real-time Forecast
    Team name: UTAustin
    Description: Team name: UTAustin
    Team members: Spencer J Fox
    Data source(s): ILI
    Methods: The forecasting method uses basic empirical dynamic modeling to make
    predictions. This method uses a topological transformation of time series data
    to identify previous states of the time series that are similar to the current
    state. To make predictions it chooses a neighborhood of nearest neighbors of
    the current state, and projects those forward. Predictions are then made by
    the resultant location of the neighborhood (Sugihara And May 1990). In essence
    it's similar to a topological method of analogues approach. The model output
    is a mean and variance for future states of the time series. We simulate from
    a normal distribution with those parameters to generate potential time courses
    for the epidemic, and use those potential trajectories to obtain our target
    probability distributions. The model is implemented using R, and harnesses the
    rEDM package for running the forecasts and the epiforecast R package to ensure
    proper historical data use.
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/first-papers/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/UTAustin_edm
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (15)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Date
    2017-10-23 EW43-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:52:32
    2017-10-30 EW44-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:52:50
    2017-11-06 EW45-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:53:13
    2017-11-13 EW46-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:53:37
    2017-11-20 EW47-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:53:56
    2017-11-27 EW48-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:54:16
    2017-12-04 EW49-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:54:38
    2017-12-11 EW50-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:54:57
    2017-12-18 EW51-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:55:17
    2017-12-25 EW52-2017-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:55:39
    2018-01-01 EW01-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:55:58
    2018-01-08 EW02-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:56:17
    2018-01-15 EW03-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:56:37
    2018-01-22 EW04-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:56:58
    2018-01-29 EW05-2018-UTAustin_edm.csv 2019-10-21 01:57:19
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