Model: LANL - Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy, 2017/2018 version API

    Name: Dynamic Bayesian Model with a hierarchical discrepancy, 2017/2018 version
    Abbreviation: DBM
    Owner: kgle
    Project: CDC Real-time Forecast
    Team name: LANL
    Description: Team name: LANL
    Team members: 'Dave Osthus, Reid Priedhorsky, Jim Gattiker, Sara Del Valle'
    Data source(s): ILI Net
    Method: The DBM combines an SIR model with a flexible discrepancy function in a
    Bayesian framework. Methodological details can be found here:
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.09481.pdf. To produce forecasts, the DBM requires
    historical data, ideally from EW 40 of 1997 through the forecast date, sans
    the H1N1 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 seasons. To our knowledge, the earliest date
    on which all historical data is available is EW 52 of 2013 through the DELPHI
    API. For flu seasons 2014/2015, 2015/2016, and 2016/2017, all forecasts
    strictly respect the backfill issue (i.e., all data used in the fitting of the
    DBM was pulled on or before the forecast date). For seasons 2010/2011 through
    2013/2014, historical data from 1997, EW 40 through 2008, EW 25 was pulled on
    2013, EW 52 (i.e., NOT strictly obeying the backfill issue) while all other
    used data was pulled on or before the forecast date.
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/first-papers/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/LANL_DBM
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (28)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Date
    2017-10-23 EW43-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:07:52
    2017-10-30 EW44-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:08:20
    2017-11-06 EW45-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:08:46
    2017-11-13 EW46-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:09:15
    2017-11-20 EW47-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:09:48
    2017-11-27 EW48-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:10:12
    2017-12-04 EW49-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:10:40
    2017-12-11 EW50-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:11:12
    2017-12-18 EW51-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:11:41
    2017-12-25 EW52-2017-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:12:06
    2018-01-01 EW01-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:12:30
    2018-01-08 EW02-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:12:52
    2018-01-15 EW03-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:13:21
    2018-01-22 EW04-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:13:50
    2018-01-29 EW05-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:14:11
    2018-02-05 EW06-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:14:36
    2018-02-12 EW07-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:14:58
    2018-02-19 EW08-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:15:21
    2018-02-26 EW09-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:15:43
    2018-03-05 EW10-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:16:06
    2018-03-12 EW11-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:16:29
    2018-03-19 EW12-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:16:53
    2018-03-26 EW13-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:17:18
    2018-04-02 EW14-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:17:45
    2018-04-09 EW15-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:18:13
    2018-04-16 EW16-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:18:43
    2018-04-23 EW17-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:19:08
    2018-04-30 EW18-2018-LANL_DBM.csv 2019-10-21 12:19:33
    2018-10-08 (No data)
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