Model: Delphi - Statistical Ensemble (using the eight submitted components, with no backcasting or nowcasting, 2017/2018 version) API

    Name: Statistical Ensemble (using the eight submitted components, with no backcasting or nowcasting, 2017/2018 version)
    Abbreviation: Stat
    Owner: kgle
    Project: CDC Real-time Forecast
    Team name: Delphi
    Description: Team name: Delphi
    Team members: Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Shannon Gallagher, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Rob Tibshirani
    Data source(s): ILINet
    Methods: Constructs an adaptively weighted ensemble of the eight other components
    shared here (but training on forecasts from additional seasons). Weights are
    selected using the degenerate EM algorithm on a window of training data that
    is a function of the week of the season, target, and type of prediction (Point
    vs. Bin). Uses two types of component forecasts in combination to train the
    ensemble weights: (a) leave-one-season-out cross-validation component
    forecasts for 2003/2004 to 2009/2010, excluding data from 2010/2011 onward,
    and (b) retrospective forecasts using past seasons' data for 2010/2011
    onwards. When generating forecasts for a given test season, the ensemble
    trains weights using only component forecasts made using past seasons' data,
    and uses these weights to combine component forecasts for the test week that
    were made using only data from previous weeks; observations from the test
    season use mimicPastEpidataDF to approximate what the ILINet report for the
    forecast week looked like. The code for generating these forecasts is
    available at https://github.com/cmu-delphi/epiforecast-R.
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/first-papers/model-forecasts/component-models/Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (28)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Date
    2017-10-23 EW43-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:29:12
    2017-10-30 EW44-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:29:44
    2017-11-06 EW45-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:30:27
    2017-11-13 EW46-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:31:02
    2017-11-20 EW47-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:31:33
    2017-11-27 EW48-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:32:09
    2017-12-04 EW49-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:32:47
    2017-12-11 EW50-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:33:22
    2017-12-18 EW51-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:33:59
    2017-12-25 EW52-2017-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:34:44
    2018-01-01 EW01-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:35:25
    2018-01-08 EW02-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:36:09
    2018-01-15 EW03-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:36:59
    2018-01-22 EW04-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:37:41
    2018-01-29 EW05-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:38:22
    2018-02-05 EW06-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:39:05
    2018-02-12 EW07-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:39:49
    2018-02-19 EW08-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:40:32
    2018-02-26 EW09-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:41:19
    2018-03-05 EW10-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:42:05
    2018-03-12 EW11-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:42:56
    2018-03-19 EW12-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:43:41
    2018-03-26 EW13-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:44:26
    2018-04-02 EW14-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:45:15
    2018-04-09 EW15-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:46:06
    2018-04-16 EW16-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:46:54
    2018-04-23 EW17-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:47:41
    2018-04-30 EW18-2018-Delphi_Stat_FewerComponentsNoBackcastNoNowcast.csv 2019-10-21 10:48:28
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