Model: Delphi - Empirical Bayes (conditioning on past four weeks only, 2017/2018 version) API

    Name: Empirical Bayes (conditioning on past four weeks only, 2017/2018 version)
    Abbreviation: EmpiricalBayes1
    Owner: kgle
    Project: CDC Real-time Forecast
    Team name: Delphi
    Description: Team name: Delphi
    Team members: Logan C. Brooks, David C. Farrow, Sangwon Hyun, Shannon Gallagher, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Roni Rosenfeld, Rob Tibshirani
    Data source(s): ILINet
    Methods: Uses the Empirical Bayes method as described here:
    http://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004382,
    but using smaller local transformations to form the prior, starting
    trajectories with week 31, and conditioning only on the past 4 weeks' wILI
    values. A small amount of smoothing is applied when calculating target
    distributions. All parameter settings are heuristically chosen. All training
    seasons precede the test season, and observations from the test season use
    mimicPastEpidataDF to approximate what the ILINet report for the forecast week
    looked like. The code for generating these forecasts is available at
    https://github.com/cmu-delphi/epiforecast-R.
    Home: https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/tree/first-papers/model-forecasts/real-time-component-models/Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4
    Auxiliary data: (No auxiliary data)

    Forecasts (28)

    Timezero Data Source Upload Date
    2017-10-23 EW43-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:19:56
    2017-10-30 EW44-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:20:18
    2017-11-06 EW45-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:20:43
    2017-11-13 EW46-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:21:09
    2017-11-20 EW47-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:21:32
    2017-11-27 EW48-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:21:57
    2017-12-04 EW49-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:22:19
    2017-12-11 EW50-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:22:45
    2017-12-18 EW51-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:23:08
    2017-12-25 EW52-2017-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:23:29
    2018-01-01 EW01-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:23:52
    2018-01-08 EW02-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:24:20
    2018-01-15 EW03-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:24:43
    2018-01-22 EW04-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:25:05
    2018-01-29 EW05-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:25:34
    2018-02-05 EW06-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:25:59
    2018-02-12 EW07-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:26:22
    2018-02-19 EW08-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:26:45
    2018-02-26 EW09-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:27:07
    2018-03-05 EW10-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:27:29
    2018-03-12 EW11-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:27:52
    2018-03-19 EW12-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:28:15
    2018-03-26 EW13-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:28:37
    2018-04-02 EW14-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:28:59
    2018-04-09 EW15-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:29:23
    2018-04-16 EW16-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:29:47
    2018-04-23 EW17-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:30:10
    2018-04-30 EW18-2018-Delphi_EmpiricalBayes_Cond4.csv 2019-10-21 12:30:37
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