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    "name": "Ensemble of dynamic harmonic model and historical averages",
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    "description": "Team name: Protea\r\nTeam members: Craig J. McGowan (contact), Alysse J. Kowalski\r\nData source(s): ilinet, google trends, who-nrevss lab data\r\nMethods: this model is a weighted ensemble between three component models. The first \r\n  component is a seasonal average model constructed using Gaussian kernel\r\n  densities based on previously observed data from the 2001/2001 season onwards,\r\n  excluding the 2009/2010 pandemic season. The second component is the Protea\r\n  Kudu model, described in more detail there. The final component is the Protea\r\n  Springbok model, described in more detail there. Models are combined using\r\n  monthly target-type weights, and the weighting scheme was chosen using\r\n  leave-one-season-out cross validation in a similar method to the FluSight\r\n  Network ensemble.  For prospective forecasts, only ILINet data known at the\r\n  time of the forecast areused, as retrieved from the CMU-Epidata API. For\r\n  subtype percentages, the backfilled data are not available, however we use the\r\n  cumulative percentage of samples of each subtype at a given week of the season\r\n  rather than the weekly percentage, which is less susceptible to backfill\r\n  effects as the season goes on. All code used in estimation and prediction is\r\n  available at https://github.com/craigjmcgowan/FluForecast",
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